UFC 308: Shara Magomedov vs Armen Petrosyan Odds, Picks & Predictions

Saturday’s UFC 308 main card kicks off with a middleweight bout between Shara Magomedov and Armen Petrosyan.

My Magomedov vs. Petrosyan predictions back the underdog in this bout, with UFC odds having Magomedov as a moderate betting favorite at -170 while Petrosyan returns at +130 for this October 26 bout in Saudi Arabia.

Magomedov vs Petrosyan prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Petrosyan ML (+130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Petrosyan ML (+130 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Shara Magomedov is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the UFC, at least in terms of popularity. With that said, this popularity has surpassed what he has actually demonstrated in the octagon, and I believe the market is overvaluing him.

While he carries a 14-0 professional record, the first 11 of those victories occurred in regional promotions against a relatively low-level talent. Still, the fascinating Magomedov and his abundance of knockout victories landed him in the UFC, where he has rallied off three straight victories against the likes of Bruno Silva, Antonio Trocoli, and Michal Oleksiejczuk.

However, he has not looked all that impressive. First, Silva has lost five of his past six fights.

Despite the win, that fight demonstrated how Magomedov struggles with his takedown and wrestling defense. His next win came against an unproven Trocoli, who made his UFC debut as a +475 in the loss to Magomedov.

Magomedov’s latest win came against Oleksiejczuk, who has lost four of his past five bouts. The point is, I’m not as impressed with his resume thus far relative to the respect he carries in the market.

Best best analysis

Armen Petrosyan is the highest level of competition Magomedov has faced thus far. It now seems like an opportune time to attempt to sell high on the slightly (in my opinion) overrated favorite. This fight feels eerily similar to Petrosyan’s victory over Christian Leroy Duncan.

Petrosyan entered that bout as a slight underdog against a rising, undefeated prospect in CLD. The UFC gave CLD his toughest test to date in that bout, similar to what it's doing to Magomedov on Saturday.

Like that CLD fight, I believe Petrosyan has what it takes to turn away the hyped prospect. Petrosyan dominated that fight, both on the feet and on the mat, when he incorporated some wrestling.

Although Petrosyan is known for his striking ability, that fight proved he can mix in the wrestling and land a takedown, which would be a seemingly easy way to take away Magomedov’s game plan and bring this fight to the mat.

Even if this fight stays on the feet in its entirety, Petrosyan can strike with Magomedov.

Finally, Petrosyan’s resume is more impressive than Magomedov’s, given he's beaten Gregory Rodrigues and CLD.

Petrosyan’s only two losses in the UFC are to a submission specialist (which Magomedov is not) in Rodolfo Vieira and Caio Borralho (the No. 5-ranked contender).

Shara Magomedov vs Armen Petrosyan odds

Method of Victory	Magomedov	Petrosyan
To win outright	-179	+145
To win by KO/TKO	+285	+675
To win by decision	+135	+255
To win by submission	+2350	+1900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 10-26

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Shara Magomedov vs Armen Petrosyan tale of the tape

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