UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley Odds, Picks & Predictions

The final UFC Fight Night of 2024 takes place tonight with a welterweight bout between Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley headlining the card.

UFC odds have Buckley as a -280 favorite, with the former title challenger Covington coming back at +210. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Buckley predictions for December 14, from the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

Covington vs Buckley prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Buckley ML (-280 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to go the distance (-135 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Since dropping down to welterweight last year, Joaquin Buckley has won five in a row with three stoppages. In his last bout, he faced Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson in October and knocked him out in the third round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus.

Meanwhile, Colby Covington hasn't fought since last December when he challenged Leon Edwards for the belt and lost by unanimous decision. It was an extremely flat performance from Covington, who showed no urgency and found himself on the backfoot while getting stuffed on eight of 10 takedown attempts.

Covington is 2-3 over the last five years, with his wins coming against a washed-up Jorge Masvidal and a declining Tyron Woodley. You've got to question his hunger after coming up short in three title shots and Buckley has been far more active, having fought 14 times since entering the UFC in 2020.

Covington is a relentless chain-wrestler with high-volume striking and a tireless gas tank. That said, Buckley also throws at a high volume and has underrated wrestling ability with eight total takedowns and more than nine minutes of control time over his last two fights. 

Buckley is also more athletic and powerful and will have a significant advantage in the striking department. That's enough for me to back him against an aging and inactive Covington.

Best best analysis

Buckley is an explosive striker with heavy hands and powerful kicks. That said, he was unable to finish Nursulton Ruziboev or Alex Morono during his recent five-fight win streak.

He won't find it easy to finish Covington, who has only been knocked out once in his career — a late fifth-round TKO against Usman. Eight of Covington's last 10 fights went the distance and the two that ended via stoppage did so in the fifth round.

Covington does a good job of neutralizing offense with his suffocating pressure and Buckley has never faced a wrestler of his caliber. You have to go back a couple of years to when his defensive wrestling was tested, but Buckley was taken to the ground twice and controlled for almost four minutes by Nassourdine Imavov, while Abdul Razak Alhassan went 3-for-4 on takedown attempts. 

Although Buckley has never shown issues with cardio, he's also never gone past three rounds or taken on a cardio machine like Covington, who can drain energy with his non-stop wrestling. If Covington can weather the early storm, he should be able to drag this fight to the final bell. 

Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley odds

Method of Victory	Covington	Buckley
To win outright	+195	-240
To win by KO/TKO	+1050	+165
To win by decision	+335	+170
To win by submission	+1550	+1700
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 12-14.

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Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley tale of the tape

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