Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura Fight Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for UFC 310

Alexandre Pantoja will make his third flyweight title defense against promotional newcomer Kai Asakura at UFC 310 this evening.

UFC odds aren't giving the challenger much of a chance, installing Pantoja as a -260 favorite, and my free betting picks agree with that assessment. 

Here are my best Pantoja vs Asakura predictions for December 7 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Pantoja vs Asakura prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Pantoja moneyline (-260 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Pantoja by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (+100 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja won a split decision against Brandon Moreno to claim the flyweight belt in 2023, and he's since defended the title with victories against Brandon Royal and Steve Erceg. He's now on a six-fight winning streak, and this is his steepest moneyline price during that span. 

It's rare to see a promotional newcomer get a title shot. Still, Dana White is thirsty for a Japanese superstar to tap into the Asian market, and Pantoja has already cleared out the shallow flyweight division. The UFC is clearly the best MMA promotion on the planet and I can't imagine somebody coming over from Rizin to immediately beat an incumbent champ.

Asakura is the former Rizin bantamweight champion, but despite a lower level of competition, he was far from dominant. The 31-year-old is coming off back-to-back knockout wins but is 7-3 in his last 10 fights.

It's no shame to lose to Hiromasa Ougikubo (while fighting through a broken hand), former UFC fighter Kyoji Horiguchi and current No. 9-ranked flyweight contender Manel Kape, but since Asakura lost to them, I don't see him defeating the well-rounded Pantoja. 

Asakura is the more technical striker with good footwork and explosive power. However, Pantoja has a granite chin, so he'll be able to come forward and pressure Asakura. Pantoja is also the far better grappler, and with his ability to push the pace, he'll take Asakura down and grind out a win. 

Best best analysis

All three of Pantoja's title fights have been decision victories, but I'm expecting a finish from him here. Don't forget that he almost subbed Royval, and he knocked down the highly durable Moreno. Prior to his title run, eight of his previous 14 wins had come by way of submission, and his grappling will be his biggest advantage in this fight.

Asakura has good takedown defense, but he hasn't faced somebody with Pantoja's relentless wrestling pressure before. Pantoja will eventually drag him down, where he'll be able to maintain top control or take his back. 

Even a KO/TKO win from Pantoja wouldn't surprise me since he knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis earlier in his UFC career. Asakura has been knocked out three times in his career and his durability could be sapped from cutting to 125 pounds after fighting at bantamweight for the last seven years.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura odds

Method of Victory	Pantoja	Asakura
To win outright	-260	+210
To win by KO/TKO	+425	+365
To win by decision	+280	+850
To win by submission	+175	+2,500
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 12-7.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura tale of the tape

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