UFC 310: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry Odds, Picks & Predictions

Shavkat Rakhmonov faces off against Ian Machado Garry in the co-main event for UFC 310 betting on December 7 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

Both fighters are undefeated but the UFC odds have Rakhmonov installed as a -370 favorite and my Rakhmonov vs Garry predictions expect him to end things inside the distance. 

Rakhmonov vs Garry prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Rakhmonov ML (-370 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Rakhmonov by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (-150 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Shavkat Rakhmonov is 18-0 in his MMA career while going 6-0 since entering the UFC in 2020. He's coming off a submission win against Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, and before that, he picked up three straight performance bonuses by finishing Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and Carlston Harris. 

Ian Garry also has a perfect record, going 15-0 in his career and 8-0 inside the octagon. That said, he didn't look particularly impressive in his last two wins, defeating Neal by split decision and eking out a competitive decision against Michael "Venom" Page.

Garry struggled with the power and precision of Page's striking which is why he relied on his wrestling to grind out a win. But if he struggles against Rakhmonov's striking, he won't be able to use that as his backup plan since Shavkat is the superior grappler.

It's worth mentioning these two used to spar against one another when Garry previously trained at Kill Cliff. I'm not putting much weight on the fact that Rakhmonov made him tap when sparring two years ago, but due to his style, that familiarity favors Shavkat.

Garry is a slick counter-striker who likes to stay on the outside and it will be a distinct advantage for Rakhmonov to already have his timing and range down. Garry has a path to pulling off an upset; rely on his distance striking and volume to outpoint Shavkat over five rounds.

However, Rakhmonov also has highly technical kickboxing and actually has a three-inch reach advantage. The Kazakh fighter isn't going to respect Garry's power and will be in his face all night. Once he gets his hands on Garry, he'll make him pay. 

Best best analysis

Rakhmonov has a 100% finish rate, with eight of his wins coming by knockout and the other 10 coming by way of submission. Garry ate some heavy power shots from Page and even got knocked down by the mediocre Song Kenan last year. 

Staying on the outside to pick apart an opponent for 25 minutes is tough, and it will be even tougher against Rakhmonov, who has a longer reach, good movement, and knows how to cut off the cage.

Rakhmonov will eventually be able to close the distance and get Garry against the cage or in the clinch. From there, he'll unload on him with power shots or sink in a submission.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry odds

Method of Victory	Rakhmonov	Garry
To win outright	-360	+280
To win by KO/TKO	+250	+700
To win by decision	+285	+625
To win by submission	+180	+4000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 12-7.

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Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry tale of the tape

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