UFC Fight Night: Manel Kape vs Bruno Silva Odds, Picks & Predictions

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main card features a flyweight bout between ranked contenders Manel Kape and Bruno Silva.

UFC odds have Kape listed as a heavy betting favorite at -380 via BET99, while Silva returns at +280.

Here are my free Kape vs. Silva predictions at tonight’s UFC event at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Kape vs Silva prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Kape moneyline (-380 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Kape by decision (-115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The steam is heavily on Kape, who enters this bout as the No. 9 contender in the 125-pound division. I agree with the steam, and there’s a lot to like about the 31-year-old with the “Starboy” nickname.

Kape is a high-volume puncher who lands at an accurate clip and who has also demonstrated solid defense on the feet. He stays out of the way of the heavy shots and has never been knocked out across 26 professional bouts.

It’s on the feet where Kape will have an advantage over Silva, who neither throws nor lands at the rates that Kape does while also defending at a lower rate. Silva’s path to victory likely resides on the mat, but I trust Kape’s 73% takedown defense to keep this on the feet, where he will surely be a step ahead of Silva.

So, why isn’t Kape an even larger favorite? I believe that he should be, and the only reason he isn’t is because of his three losses across his first seven bouts in the UFC.

However, we must look at the circumstances of those losses. The first was his debut against the current champion, Alexandre Pantoja, who is now regarded as one of the best 125-pounders of all time.

The second loss came immediately after to Matheus Nicolau, who was in the title conversation before his loss to Brandon Royval last year. Furthermore, that fight was a massive robbery, considering that all 22 media scores gave the bout to Kape.

Kape’s final and most recent loss came against Muhammad Mokaev, who, while controversial, is still 12-0 professionally.

The point is, Kape’s three losses are likely why he opened shorter than his current price, but the market is quickly adjusting.

Best best analysis

With that said, I believe we missed the boat on value in Kape’s moneyline odds, but I still see some value in the method-of-victory market. Kape’s method-of-victory odds are as follows:

• Decision (-115)
• KO/TKO (+275)
• Submission (+900)

The longshot play here is clearly the submission prop, but that number is not wide enough for my liking. Kape is a striker and will prefer to stay on his feet against Silva, who will enter this fight with a grappling game plan.

That does leave the door open for Kape to pull off a submission following a Silva takedown, but I trust Kape’s 73% takedown defense as well as the fact that Silva has never been submitted professionally other than against a juiced Khalid Taha — a fight that later got turned into a no contest.

That leaves the decision and KO/TKO props for Kape, and -115 is too short for me to pass up between those two options. Silva is extremely tough and hasn’t been knocked out in nearly a decade, and while Kape is a hard-hitter, each of his past two wins have come by decision victory.

Oddsmakers are viewing this fight the same way, given that the fight goes to decision prop is listed as wide as -170.

Manel Kape vs Bruno Silva odds

Method of Victory	Kape	Silva
To win outright	-380	+280
To win by KO/TKO	+275	+1050
To win by decision	-115	+600
To win by submission	+900	+1500
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 12-14.

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Manel Kape vs Bruno Silva tale of the tape

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