Washington @ New York props

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are anticipated by the model to run just 63.4 total plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Washington Commanders, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Washington's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are anticipated by the model to run just 63.4 total plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Washington Commanders, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year.

The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average). The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this contest, Zach Ertz is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 89th percentile among tight ends with 6.0 targets. Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 20.1% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With an exceptional 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz places as one of the leading TE receiving threats in the NFL.

The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average). The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, Terry McLaurin is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.6 targets. Terry McLaurin's 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 57.1. With an outstanding 4.9 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin stands as one of the best wide receivers in the league in the NFL.

The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average). The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects Austin Ekeler to accumulate 3.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. The Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Austin Ekeler profiles as one of the top pass-game RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs. The New York Giants have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game. The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

With a 4-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 128.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in football. Brian Robinson's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 2.4 rate.