Green Bay @ Detroit picks

Jacobs rushed for 95 yards on 13 carries when these teams clashed in Week 9. The two-time Pro Bowler is third in the NFL with 987 rushing yards and he's second in yards after contact with 563. The O/U for Jacobs rushing yards opened as low as 64.5, and he has rushed for more than 70 yards in eight of his last 11 games. Detroit's defense has been stout against the run but is dealing with a litany of injuries up front. Defensive tackles DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike, and DE Josh Paschal have been non-participants in practice and will have a tough time getting healthy on a short week. The absence of the run-stuffing Reader on the interior will be particularly problematic, especially with linebacker Alex Anzalone on the IR.

The Packers are ninth in the league in defensive dropback EPA but rank just 31st in defensive dropback success rate. That suggests that while they don't give up many big plays in the passing game, they struggle on a down-to-down basis.  That's bad news against  Jared Goff who is second in the league in success rate and completion percentage (71.8%). The veteran pivot doesn't force anything downfield and is comfortable taking what opposing defenses give him. Goff's passing yards numbers have been suppressed due to game script with Detroit blowing out multiple opponents. However, the Lions QB has still thrown for more than 260 yards in six of his last 11 games. With the Packers having won seven of their last eight contests, expect a close contest here, which should lead to plenty of passing for Goff. 

LaPorta has been targeted six times in each of the past three outings, yet has only been able to reel in half of those 18 targets – three receptions in each contests. The 18 targets to LaPorta are a notable increase in his action compared to his previous involvement, as he was slowed by injuries in the first half of the schedule. Green Bay has been beaten up by tight ends this year, giving up the seventh most yardage and sixth most receptions to rival TEs. Player projections for LaPorta range from 3.8 to 4.3 receptions on Thursday night with my forecast at four catches against Green Bay.

I’m anticipating Lions quarterback Jared Goff having to air it out early and often to keep pace with the Packers and compensate for the shorthanded Detroit defense. This game has the highest total on the board, and Green Bay ranks 28th in pass-rush win rate and 23rd in PFF pass rush grade, and the Packers have the sixth-lowest blitz rate (18.8%) while allowing the second-highest dropback success rate to opposing quarterbacks. Additionally, I value that Goff has thrown for a career-high 8.8 yards per attempt and 71.8 completion percentage, and the ninth-year QB has also averaged 255.7 passing yards per home game compared to 241.3 per on the highway.

That early action is weary of Detroit’s defense entering Week 14, with a slew of bodies missing at all three levels. The Lions are most impacted by injuries up front, with the defensive line down a number of starters and backups and the linebacker corps also running thin. The Cheeseheads have a great blend of passing and rushing in their playbook, utilizing the ground game at one of the highest rates in the second half of the schedule. Green Bay is No. 7 in EPA per handoff since Week 7 and I fully expect it to attack the Lions’ run stoppers (what’s left of them) in an effort to control possession and pace Thursday night.