Sunday's gold medal match between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz is a rematch of their 2024 Wimbledon final and marks the seventh meeting between these two champions.
Djokovic has more major tennis titles than any other man, but he’s in serious trouble against his less accomplished and much younger opponent. I break down why with my Djokovic vs. Alcaraz predictions and betting picks for August 4.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Carlos Alcaraz moneyline (-250) - My best bet
Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets (+110)
Match analysis
Carlos Alcaraz has all the weapons to win on the dirt; his versatility is unmatched, and he can go big from both sides of the dish with some of the best touch we’ve seen in our sport. His speed also allows him to defend at a high level and his return game easily ranks Top 3 on tour.
The 21-year-old Spaniard hasn’t dropped a set this week, and if he beats Djokovic, he will become only the third player to win the French Open, Wimbledon, and a gold medal in the same calendar year.
Djokovic has rolled through Paris without dropping one set, but his serve hasn’t been good all season. His once-heralded movement has taken a hit due to age, and the labored movement has caused 'Joker' to miss balls he used to make with his eyes closed.
Joker is historically one of the best returners on tour but didn’t get a breakpoint chance until late in the third set of his Wimbledon final against Alcaraz. His service struggles require his return game to be sharp, but the wheels are still a bit flat.
Alcaraz's return, along with his versatile shot-making skills and wheels to burn, will be too much to overcome on Sunday.
Best best analysis
During their Wimbledon final, Joker surrendered five of 14 break-point chances because his hampered movement caused him to spray balls across Londen. He couldn’t hold serve and he couldn’t break either, allowing Alcaraz a freeroll the entire match.
Expect more of the same on Sunday. Alcaraz is like the Energizer Bunny: he may allow a couple of loose points on his serve, but he keeps coming. His continuous pressure, combined with Joker's poor serving, hampered movement, and loose forehands, is why Alcaraz will claim gold in straight sets.
Alcaraz vs Djokovic odds
| Carlos Alcaraz | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | Moneyline | +200 |
| -3.5 (-120) | Game spread | +3.5 (-120) |
| Over 22.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-140) |
Odds as of 8-3.
Not intended for use in MA.
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