Jessica Pegula is into her first Grand Slam final after a captivating performance against Karolina Muchova on Thursday, but lying in wait is Aryna Sabalenka who seeks her first-ever US Open victory after finishing as last year’s runner-up.
Will the American use 'homecourt' to her advantage and defy the US Open odds? Or will Sablanka prove to be too much to handle?
Find out below as I break down this exciting final and offer my best free picks for Saturday, September 7.
Pegula vs Sabalenka prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Pegula moneyline (+250 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Over 21.5 games (-105 at DraftKings)
Match analysis
Despite winning two Grand Slams in the last two years at the Australian Open, it does seem like a fool’s errand to back Sabakenka in a final.
She’s historically struggled at that stage of tournaments, and last year as a big favorite dropped the US Open final to Coco Gauff in three sets, fumbling away a very winnable match.
Now, she’ll need to compete with Pegula who’s playing the tennis of her life right now. What Muchova lacks in name recognition she more than makes up for on the court, playing an incredible match against Pegula and running out to a break lead after winning the second set.
While Pegula turned that one around rather admirably, it wasn’t as if Muchova did anything to lose it. The American showcased her brilliant counterpunching skills and kept Muchova back in the court to limit her ability to go big from the baseline.
That’s something that may happen on Saturday against the biggest hitter in the world. Sabalenka fell to Pegula at the year-end finals last season to bring this head-to-head on hardcourts at 2-2. While she did take out Pegula in the Cincinnati final last month, there was plenty of context necessary there.
Pegula had just won a 1000-level event in Montreal and after a run to the final had nothing left in the tank for Sabalenka. Despite the fact that we’ve been playing for two weeks, the days of rest in between matches will mean Pegula is much better rested for this match and should put forth a better performance.
Best best analysis
I’m quite surprised to see the total on games this low, even if the last two meetings these players have had went Under by the hook.
Sabalenka is simply playing too well not to at least claim a set here, and even if she doesn’t her serve has looked unbreakable throughout the tournament and should mean we get some laborious sets.
Pegula’s return gives her a great chance to steal this match, but once again with such an even matchup over the years between these two, I find it hard to believe either player will come out and win with one-way traffic.
I’d bank on a tiebreak or two very long sets here at the minimum, and I like taking the discounted price on the Over as opposed to Pegula to win a set. Both are fine, but if things go according to plan this title fight should go the distance.
Pegula vs Sabalenka odds
| (6) Jessica Pegula | (2) Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| +250 | Moneyline | -330 |
| +4.5 (-125) | Game spread | -4.5 (-105) |
| Over 21.5 (-110) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 6, 2024.
Not intended for use in MA.
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