I’m getting some real, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” vibes from the Tennessee Titans in 2023.
Much like my favorite film franchise, the Titans are giving it one more go despite the faces of that franchise aging rapidly — and Super Bowl odds aren't exactly keen on their chances.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is on a career cliff at 34 and Derrick Henry is 29 years old, which means he’s testing that 30-year-old “best before date” for running backs. New addition DeAndre Hopkins is 31 years old and has played a total of 19 games in the past two seasons due to suspension and injuries.
And much like the latest installment in the “Indiana Jones” saga, Tennessee’s 2022 campaign started out with plenty of promise — with the Titans going 7-3 straight up and 8-2 ATS in the opening 10 games — before the wheels fell off in the final act.
Like an octogenarian Indy, Tannehill’s body just wasn’t up to the task and the roster finished with the third most games lost to injuries. The Titans flopped on a season-ending six-game slide (1-4-1 ATS) to finish outside the playoff picture for the first time in four years.
Can coach Mike Vrabel, a new GM and OC, and a toothless AFC South get Tennessee defy NFL futures odds and get back on top of the division? After looking through the NFL odds, I didn't hear John Williams’ legendary, “Da, Da, Da, Dahhhh!” when writing my 2023 Tennessee Titans NFL betting preview.
Tennessee Titans futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +8,000 | +6,000 | +10,000 |
| Win conference | +5,500 | +4,000 | +6,000 |
| Win division | +350 | +310 | +340 |
| Make playoffs | +210 | +198 | +250 |
| O7.5 wins | -125 | -128 | -125 |
| U7.5 wins | +105 | +104 | +105 |
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-250)
It’s pricy but “no playoffs” is the logical choice when it comes to betting Tennessee’s futures.
The Titans’ season win total is 7.5 with a juicy lean to the Over, and if you pick through the schedule, there are eight wins available — if everything goes according to plan.
Tennessee plays a very trying opening half of 2023, which may not leave much left of this team when the sked loosens up later. And even if the Titans get to eight wins — or even nine — it will leave them behind other AFC contenders with much clearer paths to double-digit victories.
My power ratings put Tennessee well off the pace in the AFC, sitting 24th overall, so I’ll eat the steeper line on the Titans not packing their bags for the postseason in 2023.
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Tennessee Titans betting overview
What will win bets: Defensive line
Forget Derrick Henry. This D-line is the real star of the show in Music City. Tennessee’s front was among the best at stuffing the run in 2022, finishing tops in EPA allowed per handoff, opponents’ success rate per run, and No. 1 in Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The Titans allowed 3.4 yards per handoff and only 76.9 yards on the ground per game – a stat that was a bit skewed by the fact many foes opted to exploit Tennessee’s dismal pass defense instead. The Titans bled heavily through the air last season, giving up seven yards per attempt and 29 passing touchdowns.
Shane Bowen’s defense doesn’t blitz much and relies on the defensive line to stir up pressure. They had only 39 sacks in 2022 but did sit Top 10 in hurries and QB hits, and if the front four can draw some double teams, it will free up space for linebackers like the returning Harold Landry III to spice up the pass rush and bail out a sucky secondary.
The Titans’ defense does play some sturdy offensive lines early on with five of their first seven opponents boasting O-lines ranked Top 10 in preseason polls. However, the home stretch feeds Tennessee some porous pass protections with five of its final six games against lines ranked 20th or worse.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
The Titans had a makeover on the line of scrimmage after the protection was piss poor in 2022.
Tennessee finished the year allowing 49 sacks and ranked 29th in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate, and that killed the passing game. Injuries played a big role in that regression, but even before things went South for the Titans, they were 20th in Passing DVOA and Ryan Tannehill was taking heat.
The line got a shakeup in the offseason, casting off starters and mixing in new faces all while learning a new playbook under offensive coordinator Tim Kelly. If the preseason opener is any indication (eight sacks allowed), Tennessee has a lot of work to do.
Some preseason polls ranked the Titans’ offensive line dead last in the NFL, which means the chance of Ryan Tannehill making it out of 2023 unscathed is slim. That would leave this offense in the hands of either rookie Will Levis or second-year QB Malik Willis. Not good.
Tennessee Titans 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  New Orleans Saints |
+3 |
| 2 | vs  Los Angeles Chargers |
+3.5 |
| 3 | @  Cleveland Browns |
+4.5 |
| 4 | vs  Cincinnati Bengals |
+4.5 |
| 5 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
+1 |
| 6 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
+5.5 |
| 7 | BYE | |
| 8 | vs  Atlanta Falcons |
-1 |
| 9 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
+4 |
| 10 | @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-1 |
| 11 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
+5 |
| 12 | vs  Carolina Panthers |
-1 |
| 13 | vs Indianapolis Colts |
-2.5 |
| 14 | @  Miami Dolphins |
+7 |
| 15 | vs  Houston Texans |
-3 |
| 16 | vs  Seattle Seahawks |
+2 |
| 17 | @ Houston Texans |
-1 |
| 18 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars |
+2.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The Titans have one of the bigger differences in terms of season win total and look-ahead lines.
Books have Tennessee leaning toward eight victories (Over 7.5 -120) while the early-bird spreads have the team laying the points in only four games. The mystery around the Titans manifests itself in three games with pick’em spreads, as oddsmakers sit on the fence.
Tennessee is an underdog in 10 games, which is a spot Mike Vrabel has excelled in. Since taking over the team in 2018, the Titans are 20-18 SU and 23-14-1 ATS (62%) when getting the points — including 5-3-1 ATS as pups last year.
As mentioned, my NFL power ratings are down on Tennessee in 2023, ranking it 24th (38.23/100) overall. That has Vrabel’s guys just ahead of AFC South foes Indianapolis (26th) and Houston (27th) but well behind Jacksonville (sixth) in the division.
Due to life in the AFC South, the strength of schedule polls peg the Titans with a softer sked ranked 25th. But that slate is frontloaded with tough opponents, road trips, an international game, and two tricky schedule spots.
Tennessee plays seven of its first 10 games away from Nissan Stadium, including a UK neutral-site run-in with the Ravens in Week 6. November brings three straight road games between Week 9 and Week 11 before things lighten up in the home stretch.
If the Titans can survive that travel-heavy calendar, they have a chance to make a run at the postseason with five of their final seven games coming at home — and against some beatable opponents. Tennessee faces Carolina, Indianapolis, Houston, Seattle, and then a Week 18 finale with Jacksonville all in Nashville.
Tennessee Titans schedule spot bet
Week 6: VS Ravens (UK)
The Titans cross the pond to battle the Ravens in a foggy London town in Week 6.
This will actually be the fourth travel spot for Tennessee in the first six games, which cuts into the practice reps the offense will get in Tim Kelly’s new system. Not only that, but five of the first six games feature defenses ranked Top 15 in the preseason polls.
However, as tight as this turnaround is for Tennessee, it’s even worse for the Ravens. Baltimore will be playing its third straight away game after back-to-back road outings in Week 4 and Week 5. The London showcase also serves as the fourth travel spot for the Ravens in a span of 28 days, with that offense also getting used to a new OC.
The look-ahead lines give a neutral-site spread of Tennessee +5 while my ratings forecast a line of Titans +7 before adjusting for the Ravens’ rotten spot.
Star power: Derrick Henry props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +15,000 | +15,000 | +12,500 |
| OPOY | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| Rush yards leader | +650 | +650 | +850 |
| Rush TD leader | +550 | +900 | +600 |
| O9.5 rush TD | -105 | -128* | +100 |
| U9.5 rush TD | -115 | +100* | -130 |
| Rush yards total | 1,150.5 | 1,175.5 | 1,180.5 |
*Rush TD Over/Under is 8.5 at FanDuel
Best prop: Over 8.5 rushing TDs
All the NFL player projections I looked at had Derrick Henry going Over 8.5 rushing touchdowns in 2023, but not all books offer that prop at 8.5 O/U.
The majority of markets sit at 9.5 touchdowns O/U and when measured against a consensus forecast of 9.8 TDs, I’ll shop around for the shorter prop.
Even if Henry misses some games and his yardage totals take a hit, he’s still an automatic option in the red zone. Eleven of his 13 rushing touchdowns last season came inside the 20-yard line. And by the way, his TD Over/Under was 13.5 in 2022, so this is a big decline that doesn’t seem warranted.
The Titans do face a stiffer challenge early on with some solid stop units on deck, but the tail end of the season could see Henry make a break for this total. And if Tannehill goes down at any point, King Henry becomes the focal point of the offense.
Tennessee Titans betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
DeAndre Hopkins put up a 64-717-3 line last season in Arizona over nine games of less-than-100% health. He moves into the No. 1 role in Tennessee where Ryan Tannehill should get back to the 20-25 TD range. With a TD total of 4.5, Hopkins’s Over projects as one of the best season-long prop bets for the Titans’ offense.
THE BLITZ is projecting 6.39 receiving TDs for Hopkins who had topped this in five straight seasons before 2022. The receiver even managed eight TDs in 2021 where he played just 10 games and had just 42 grabs. Facing the Colts, Jags, and Texans is also a better situation than the NFC West. Yahoo is projecting 5.5 and Fantasy Pros is at 5.3.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
A lot of signs pointed toward the Titans pulling the plug and going into a full-on rebuild, but they’re clearly not ready to throw in the towel after signing DeAndre Hopkins. While D-Hop doesn’t exactly make Tennessee a Super Bowl contender, this isn’t a team people should write off entirely in 2023: It's built a reputation of playing up to the competition under Mike Vrabel — sitting 12-10 SU as an underdog since the start of the 2020 season — and I think it makes for a nice bounce-back candidate.
Before the Titans' season torpedoed off of a cliff last season, they got off to a respectable 5-3 start, with all three of the losses coming to playoff teams. While many are happy to trash Ryan Tannehill, let’s not forget he was a very competent QB for Tennessee before it stupidly sent A.J. Brown to the Eagles. The Titans will also benefit from playing one of the easier schedules in the NFL, so don’t be surprised to see them top their season win total of 7.5... while a +210 bet the make the playoffs is also worthy of your consideration.
Tennessee Titans trend to know
I mentioned Mike Vrabel’s stellar record against the spread when the Titans are installed as underdogs — covering at a 62% clip since 2018. Make Tennessee a home pup and the team is 9-5 ATS (64%) in that span.
The oddsmakers are giving Tennessee points at home in four games in 2023, including two tough tests right out of the gate with the Chargers and Bengals showing up at Nissan Stadium in the opening four weeks.
Titans' home underdogs
- Week 2 vs. Chargers (+3.5)
- Week 4 vs. Bengals (+5)
- Week 16 vs. Seahawks (+2.5)
- Week 18 vs. Jaguars (+1.5)
