Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the steepest swap in leading men since the “Speed” franchise flipped Keanu Reeves for Jason Patric (whoever that is?).
And much like “Speed 2: Cruise Control”, the Bucs’ pirate ship is headed for rough waters.
NFL futures for Tampa Bay are terrible, with a win total sinking to six and oddsmakers offering an even grimmer forecast. Look-ahead NFL odds have the Buccaneers as underdogs in 15 of their 17 games with two other contests pegged at pick’ems.
Unlike its NFC South brethren, the Bucs’ schedule is no pleasure cruise. Sure, the division is down and the AFC South shows up for non-conference competition, but Tampa also takes on Super Bowl odds favorites Philadelphia, Buffalo, and San Francisco — producing some of the biggest look-ahead spreads of the 2023 season.
Should Bucs backers switch out the pirate flag for a white one or can we salvage this shipwreck for any value? I walk that plank with my 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL betting preview.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +9,000 | +7,500 | +8,000 |
| Win conference | +4,500 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Win division | +800 | +750 | +800 |
| Make playoffs | +400 | +360 | +400 |
| O6.5 wins | +120 | +116 | +120 |
| U6.5 wins | -140 | -142 | -140 |
Best futures bet: Under 6 wins (+130 at SuperBook)
Most operators have a half-win hook on the Bucs’ total, dealing Under 6.5 at -140. If you shop you can find a clean six at Under +130, which I feel still gives you plenty of headroom considering how bad this team could be and how rough this schedule is.
The look-ahead lines didn’t like any of Tampa Bay’s 17 outings enough to make it a favorite in any of them. The most winnable games come versus Carolina and Tennessee with those meetings set at a PK.
A raw rundown of the slate sees the Bucs as big dogs in early games and then a road-packed middle of the calendar has Tampa as a visitor in six of eight outings between Week 8 and Week 15.
The Bucs suffer the biggest drop in quarterback play across the NFL and new offensive coordinator Dave Canales wants to lean into a run in 2023. I don’t know how you do that considering the betting markets believe you’ll be playing from behind almost every week.
On a bright note: at least the “Creamsicles” are coming back.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting overview
What will win bets: All those points
We’ve all seen a bad team get so bad that they actually become a good bet. The betting market sours on them so much that you can’t ignore the free points for long, and Tampa Bay could get there in 2023.
The Bucs' defense is respectable, ranking inside the Top 20 in most preseason polls. They have a talented linebacker corps which should anchor Todd Bowles' defense and the secondary has promise with Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean guarding against the big play.
Offensively, the playbook is going to be short and safe. Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback for now and Canales will want to avoid him playing under duress (because we all know what happens).
That means short shots and handoffs, which should keep the clock ticking and limit the possessions for those big favorites. Tampa Bay ran the fastest tempo on offense in 2022 (25.37 sec/play) with Brady under center and threw the ball at a league-high 67.88% rate. That ain’t the 2023 Bucs.
Maybe… just maybe… Tampa Bay can play keep-away long enough to cash in on those big point spreads.
What will lose bets: Offense
Canales wants to roll out a balanced attack, which means a lot more touches for the Buccaneers’ running backs compared to the Brady-led playbook.
This unit isn’t great, with Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds splitting carries and the offensive line getting older by the snap. This group ranked 28th in adjusted line yards in 2022 and when Tampa Bay did run, it ranked dead last in EPA per handoff (-0.208).
But what happens when the Buccaneers can’t run? Those sizable spreads say this team is going to be trailing — and trailing big — in the majority of games, which means more passing than Canales likes. Tampa Bay has great receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but even those guys can’t bail out Baker.
Mayfield is facing defenses that are unleashing some hell with extra rushers. Baker versus the blitz is about as one-sided as Bambi vs. Godzilla. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt in those situations last season.
The ineptitude of the offense will wear down the defense, which will get overloaded with minutes and begin to break down. Spreads may not be able to get high enough at that point.
But, damn those orange throwbacks are fire!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  Minnesota Vikings |
+6.5 |
| 2 | vs  Chicago Bears |
+1.5 |
| 3 | vs  Philadelphia Eagles |
+7 |
| 4 | @  New Orleans Saints |
+5.5 |
| 5 | BYE | |
| 6 | vs  Detroit Lions |
+3.5 |
| 7 | vs  Atlanta Falcons |
+1 |
| 8 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+10 |
| 9 | @  Houston Texans |
+1 |
| 10 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
+1 |
| 11 | @  San Francisco 49ers |
+7.5 |
| 12 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
+1 |
| 13 | vs  Carolina Panthers |
-1 |
| 14 | @ Atlanta Falcons |
+3 |
| 15 | @  Green Bay Packers |
+3.5 |
| 16 | vs  Jacksonville Jaguars |
+3.5 |
| 17 | vs New Orleans Saints |
+1.5 |
| 18 | @ Carolina Panthers |
+2.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
It’s mostly doom and gloom in Pirate Bay, with a shallow win total, no love from the look-ahead lines, and a schedule that sends some top-tier teams to Tampa in 2023. Because of those factors, my NFL power ratings have the Buccos bringing up the rear and ranked 31st overall (20.59/100).
Week 1 could set the tone for a long year for Bucs bettors, with Tampa Bay getting +6.5 points on the road in Minnesota. That spread has been flirting with a touchdown all summer and my ratings produced a line of Tampa Bay +8.5. Bucs backers can take solace in the fact that Week 1 underdogs of +6.5 or bigger are 21-11-1 ATS (65%) since 2010.
There are some large numbers out there, with Tampa getting more than a field goal (+3.5 or higher) in nine games and six or more points in five of those contests. That includes an +11.5 spread at Buffalo for Thursday Night Football in Week 8 — tied for the second biggest look-ahead spread on the board.
Raymond James Stadium is the setting for four of the Bucs’ first six games with an early bye in Week 5 before the team lives out of a suitcase for the next two months. From Week 8 to Week 15, the Buccaneers are in enemy territory in six of eight outings with three back-to-back road sets before Christmas.
Look-ahead totals bottom out in the second half of the schedule. While the team’s average Over/Under is just over 40 points, nine of the final 10 games have sub-40 totals. I don’t think books expect Tampa to account for many of those points either.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers schedule spot bet
Week 15: @ Green Bay
A trip to Lambeau Field in mid-December is a bad spot no matter the circumstances, but that matchup with the Cheeseheads is made even worse knowing this is the final away game of that dreaded six-in-eight away swing.
Tampa Bay will be playing its third back-to-back road set in Week 15. And if the season plays out as it should, the Buccaneers will be looking ahead to getting home for the holidays. They just so happen to host Jacksonville on Christmas Eve in Week 16.
Green Bay may not have Aaron Rodgers anymore but the Packers enjoy one of the strongest home-field edges in football come the winter months. Green Bay is 10-1 straight up and 7-4 ATS in home games between Week 13 and Week 18 over the previous four seasons.
The early-bird odds are Tampa Bay +4.5, while my ratings produced a projected spread of Bucs +7 before adjustments for the shit situational spot and the pending Wisconsin winter weather.
Star power: Chris Godwin props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | OTB | OTB | +50,000 |
| OPOY | +10,000 | +20,000 | +9,000 |
| Receiving yards leader | +7,000 | +6,500 | +7,000 |
| Receiving TD leader | +5,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| O80.5 receptions | -110 | -112* | -115 |
| U80.5 receptions | -110 | -112* | -115 |
| Receiving yards total | 800.5 | 800.5 | 825.5 |
*Receptions total is 77.5 at FanDuel
Best prop: Chris Godwin Under 4.5 touchdowns (+105 at DraftKings)
The pace and passing propensity for this offense is on a beach somewhere with Tom Brady and a supermodel. That leaves little for Bucs WR Chris Godwin.
Godwin caught 104 balls for 1,023 yards in 15 games in 2022 and his 2023 projections are slimming that production to a consensus of 937 yards on 86 catches — if he manages to play in all 17 games. Godwin hasn’t played a full season in four years, missing time for multiple ailments.
He only scored three touchdowns with Brady at the wheel last season, due to the Bucs’ bad red-zone offense which found paydirt just 50.94% of the time (25th). Things won’t get any better with Mayfield or whoever is under center, with those 2023 models calling for fewer than 4.5 TD catches for Godwin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
After finishing 2022 with the fewest rushes per game and yards per rush attempt, HC Todd Bowles and new OC Dave Canales will look to inject some life into this run game in 2023 without Tom Brady.
Canales spent well over a decade under Pete Carroll, who is a run-first head coach, and paired with possibly the worst QB situation in football. It should be a much more productive year on the ground for Rachaad White.
The O-line has seen some changes and second-round rookie Cody Mauch and free-agent acquisition Matt Feiler should help improve a line that will also get Ryan Jensen back after he missed all of last year. It’s a Top-10 SOS and THE BLITZ is projecting 921 rushing yards for White, which is a massive 31% difference on his rushing total of 700.5. Chase Edmonds is better in the passing game and Ke’Shawn Vaughn might not even crack the roster. There isn’t a lot of competition for carries in this offense. Over the final eight regular season games, White saw 121 touches and averaged almost 50 yards rushing per game.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
If there was ever a candidate to fully commit to tearing it down and going into a full-on rebuild, it’s this team. The drop-off at quarterback from last season to this year can best be described as embarrassing. Don’t be fooled by the Bucs making the playoffs last year either — they were awful. After a 2-0 start, they went 6-9 the rest of the way and struggled to get wins vs. the likes of Sam Darnold and Trace McSorley in the season’s final weeks.
Tampa saw the fortunes a difference-making QB can bring to an organization when it became a surprise landing spot for Tom Brady. Don’t be surprised if Tampa Bay takes its foot off the gas if the season gets ugly early so it can re-up with a serious gunslinger at the top of the 2024 Draft. As a result, taking the Bucs to have the league’s worst record at +700 odds is a great bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers trend to know
Before Todd Bowles took over as head coach for mentor Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay was outstanding in non-conference contests.
In his three seasons with the Bucs, Arians finished 10-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS versus AFC opposition from 2019 to 2021. However, in Bowles' first year as Tampa Bay’s head coach, the team went 0-5 SU and ATS against the AFC.
The 2023 non-conference calendar does have the beefy spread at Buffalo on Thursday Night Football but the schedule sends the AFC South after the Bucs — perhaps the only other division more down in the dumps than the NFC South.
Buccaneers non-conference games
- Week 8 @ Buffalo (+11.5)
- Week 9 @ Houston (+2.5)
- Week 10 vs. Tennessee (PK)
- Week 12 @ Indianapolis (+2.5)
- Week 16 vs. Jacksonville (+4)
