One of the best rivalries in sports takes the field for the second time in six weeks as the Baltimore Ravens look to avenge their November 17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
While Lamar Jackson is poised to continue playing at an NFL MVP level, Russell Wilson will be without his top target for the third straight game. The two future NFL Hall of Fame QBs are the main focus of my Steelers vs. Ravens player props and NFL picks for Saturday, December 21.
Steelers vs Ravens props
- Lamar Jackson Over 274.5 passing and rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Derrick Henry Under 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Russell Wilson Under 206.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Steelers vs Ravens props
Prop bet #1: Lamar Jackson Over 274.5 passing and rushing yards
While Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite to win NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson is turning in another season worthy of bringing home the league’s top individual honor.
The two-time winner has accounted for 10 total touchdowns with zero interceptions in his last three games. The last time he threw a pick was in the 18-16 loss to the Steelers on the road, and in the four games before that, he put up 14 touchdown passes with zero interceptions.
He’s on a historic eight-game run right now - and having the best passing season of his career - with the only thorn in his side being that Pittsburgh defense. However, he’s poised to bounce back in a home rematch.
Jackson sits fifth in the league in passing yards (3,580) and leads all QBs in rushing yards (743). The former Heisman winner is averaging well over this 274.5 combined passing and rushing yards line (308.8) and has cleared it in eight of his last 10 games - he’s topped it with passing yards alone in seven of them.
While Pittsburgh’s defense is among the best in the NFL, it’s allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game (222.3). In its last three games, it allowed both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts to top this number.
While Burrow and Hurts rank top 10 in EPA per play among QBs this season, Jackson’s ahead of both and sits only behind Allen. He’s also the only player in the NFL with more than 16 big-time throws (22) and fewer than 10 turnover-worthy plays (8) - plus, he’s top 20 in missed tackles forced (36).
So even with TJ Watt being healthy enough to play, the Louisville product should still be capable of putting up MVP numbers.
Prop bet #2: Derrick Henry Under 82.5 rushing yards
After starting the season on a tear and trading as the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds favorite, Derrick Henry has almost looked human in recent weeks. He’s now +2900 by the OPOY odds, despite being second in the NFL in rushing (1,474).
That’s because after starting the season by rushing for 84-plus yards in seven of nine games while averaging 116.8 rushing yards per outing, he’s only gone for more than 82 once in his last five games.
Over that five-game stretch - which includes rushing for just 65 yards against the Steelers - he’s averaging 32.4 fewer rushing yards per game (84.4). Is the 30-year-old running back slowing down?
He’s still clearly an effective contact hitter, picking up chunk yards, but the home runs have dissipated in recent weeks. I don’t think he’ll be able to pop one out of M&T Bank Stadium against the Steelers like he’s Crush Davis.
Pittsburgh is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL (94.4) and ranks No. 9 in EPA per rush on defense since Week 3. Both Watt (22) and Cameron Hayward (29) rank top 10 in run stops at their respective positions, too.
While I think Henry will get close to this number, I don’t think he’s going to rip off a patented jaw-dropping explosive run to put him over the top against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Prop bet #3: Russell Wilson Under 206.5 passing yards
The Ravens' defense has been far from great this season and sits just 28th in EPA per dropback, but it’s been more competent in the second half of the season. While it’s not giving anyone flashbacks to the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, it’s playing well enough to win.
The pass defense, in particular, has made strides and is now at an average level, jumping to 15th in EPA per dropback since Week 8. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is going in the opposite direction after a hot start as the Steelers QB1.
Wilson cooked in his first two outings in the black and gold, averaging 271 passing yards per game with four total touchdowns. In his last six starts, he’s only gone Over 206.5 passing yards twice - he threw for 205 against Baltimore in Week 11.
It’s gotten even worse as of late after rewinding the clock and dicing up the Bengals’ horrific defense to the tune of 414 passing yards on December 1, he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games.
In those two games against the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles, he averaged a measly 143 passing yards. The massive drop-off coincides with the loss of star WR George Pickens.
Wilson’s favorite moonball target has been out the last two games and will miss this matchup too. Without Pickens, it’s going to be hard to hit the Over with Pittsburgh’s motley crew of wide receivers.
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