Packers vs Lions Predictions, Picks, Best Bets & Odds for Week 14 Thursday Night Football

Odds as of 12/5

Thursday Night Football sends the Green Bay Packers to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions in a monster midweek matchup that will shape the NFC playoff picture. 

Detroit comes into Week 14 with a long list of injuries on defense, which means the offense will have to carry the team. A big part of that playbook is tight end Sam LaPorta, who my Packers vs. Lions predictions have pegged for a busy night.

My NFL picks for tonight dig deeper into this NFC North showdown, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and airs on Amazon Prime Video.

Packers vs Lions predictions for Thursday Night Football

• Spread pick: Packers +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel) 
• Moneyline pick: Packers (+142 at FanDuel)
• Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 
• Best bet: Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 receptions (-102 at FanDuel)

Packers vs Lions spread prediction

If you read my NFL Underdogs column, you know I’m taking the points with the Packers in this monster matchup. Green Bay will exploit those soft spots in the Detroit defense and grind it out on the ground, controlling possession and keeping the Lions’ high-octane offense parked on the sideline. Green Bay also has a quality defense and I see it keeping this one inside a field goal.

Packers vs Lions moneyline prediction

The Lions got the best of the Packers at Lambeau Field back in Week 9 and the current moneyline odds give Detroit a 65% implied win probability on Thursday.

However, defensive issues loom large for the Lions on the short week and Green Bay presents a solid two-way test, on both offense and defense.

I did take the points with the Packers +3.5 earlier this week and could see the Cheeseheads stealing a victory in Motown.

Packers vs Lions Over/Under prediction

You have two capable offenses and two of the best QBs in the NFC taking to the fast indoor turf of Ford Field. But, with the way the Packers want this game to play out, I’m going with the Under 51.5 point.

Green Bay has found its footing in the run game and will look to grind out the ground game, milk the clock and wear down a thin Detroit defense. And while both team did play last Thursday, these midweek marquee games tend to lean toward the Under.

Packers vs Lions best bet

Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 receptions (-102 at FanDuel)

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has been a favorite option for quarterback Jared Goff the past three games, but it hasn’t exactly resulted in an uptick in receptions. 

LaPorta has been targeted six times in each of the past three outings, yet has only reeled in half of those 18 targets — three receptions in each contest. He caught three balls versus the Bears on Thanksgiving, amounting to only six total yards but two of those receptions were for touchdowns.

The 18 targets are a notable increase in his action. The second-year TE had drawn more than five passes only once in his first eight games and has caught four or more balls just three times in 2024.

That lower output is the result of early-season ailments, with LaPorta fighting through a hamstring injury and a bum ankle in the first half of the schedule. But after his effort last Thursday, head coach Dan Campbell told the media that LaPorta is the healthiest he’s been all season — and Goff echoed that statement after the win.

“(LaPorta had) a couple good ones to him, and he got himself open on both of those and (I) put it right on him,” Goff told the press on Thursday. “He's a good player and he's finally getting back to himself at this point and it feels good."

Given the point spread and taller total (51.5 points) as well as the Lions’ defensive gaps, the game script says Goff & Co. will be passing a lot against the Green Bay Packers. 

Green Bay has been beaten up by tight ends this year, giving up the seventh-most yardage and sixth-most receptions. The Cheeseheads enter Week 14 with injuries at linebacker, including possibly playing without a top coverage LB in Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring).

LaPorta, who only had two catches on three targets in the win at Green Bay in Week 9, had four and five-catch efforts against the Packers last season. He’s an even bigger part of the playbook in 2024 and more so the past two games, playing greater than 90% of snaps the last two outings after topping a 90% snap rate only once (Week 7) this season.

Player projections for LaPorta range from 3.8 to 4.3 receptions with my forecast at four catches against Green Bay. The Over 3.5 receptions for LaPorta opened as big as +144 and has been steamed to -102, showing strong support from respected money ahead of Thursday Night Football.

Packers vs Lions TNF same-game parlay

Sam LaPorta 4+ Receptions

Packers +3.5

Under 51.5

+486 at FanDuel

LaPorta has drawn 18 total targets in the past three games and faces a Packers defense susceptible to TEs. Projections call for four catches.

The Packers will pick on a Lions defensive front with a methodical attack, anchored in the run. 

Green Bay will play keep-away from Detroit’s offense and has a solid stop unit that checked the Lions to just 17 points on offense in their last meeting.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Packers vs Lions odds

Packers vs Lions live odds

Packers vs Lions opening odds

• Spread: Green Bay +5.5 | Detroit -5.5
• Moneyline: Green Bay +210 | Detroit -260
• Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5

Packers vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Lions opened as big as 5.5-point favorites and it didn’t take long for that spread to push through the undervalued key number of four and drop to a cheap -3.5, as of this writing. 
• Covers Consensus shows 62% of picks laying the points with Detroit, which has drawn one-sided play most weeks due to its incredible success against the spread (9-3 ATS).
• The total opened at 51.5 points and stayed still at most books. Covers Consensus shows 72% of picks taking the Over on Thursday Night Football.

Packers vs Lions betting trend to know

The Lions are 14-3 ATS as a favorite versus non-divisional opponents the past two seasons (82%) but just 4-4 ATS as a fave in NFC North competition in that span. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Lions.

How to watch Packers vs Lions game info

Learn how to live stream Packers vs. Lions for free.

Packers vs Lions latest injuries

Considering the long list of ailments on the Detroit defense, you might just get a call from coordinator Aaron Glenn to suit up tonight. Sit by the phone. The Lions are especially thin up front with several defensive linemen either out for Thursday or on injured reserves in Week 14. As for the players not on IR but not suiting up against the Packers, defensive tackles D.J Reader and Levi Onwuzurik are out along with DE Josh Paschal. The offensive line is without starting tackle Taylor Decker.

The Packers don’t have as many holes in the depth chart but will not have WR Romeo Doubs for Thursday as well as LB Edgerrin Cooper and top CB Jaire Alexander miss on the defense.

Heading into tonight’s pivotal Packers-Lions game, no other NFL team has more than seven defensive players on injured reserve; Detroit has 13. pic.twitter.com/favlTFqueE

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 5, 2024

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