The New York Giants not only topped their modest win total and made the postseason (winning a Wild Card game in the process), but they were the best bet in football with a 13-4 record against the spread in the regular season. All of it was enough to crown Brian Daboll as Coach of the Year in his first spin in the Big Apple.
Expectations for 2023 are mixed.
Some project the overperforming G-Men to fall back to earth while the NFL futures markets aren’t bailing on Big Blue. New York’s season win total is 7.5 and the look-ahead lines for NFL odds have it in the six-to-seven win range (fave in six games with a pick’em). That’s better than the 2022 preseason forecast when the Giants were faves in only four games and had a season win total of seven juiced heavily to the Under.
Working against Daboll in Year 2 is a schedule many analysts measure as the toughest in the league. How much will that impact New York’s ATS output? I find out in my 2023 New York Giants NFL betting preview.
New York Giants futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +6,500 | +4,800 | +4,000 |
| Win conference | +2,500 | +2,200 | +1,600 |
| Win division | +850 | +700 | +700 |
| Make playoffs | +160 | +172 | +165 |
| O7.5 wins | +100 | -106 | +100 |
| U7.5 wins | -120 | -114 | -120 |
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 wins (-114)
The Giants tied their season win total of seven before Thanksgiving rolled around last season, and a big part of that success was an easy schedule to open the year.
New York played only one true road game in the first six weeks, with four games inside MetLife Stadium and a trip to London for a neutral-site win over Green Bay in Week 5.
That got the ball rolling as the team transitioned to a brand-new coaching staff that helped the G-Men go 7-2 SU and ATS in one-score games (eight points or less) in those first nine outings of 2022, finishing 8-4-1 SU and an incredible 12-1 ATS in those one-possession contests.
The NFL schedule makers did Daboll & Co. no favors in 2023.
New York opens the year hosting Dallas — who the Giants have beaten only once since 2017 — on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Then, it plays at Arizona, at San Francisco (Thursday), at home to Seattle, then back on the road to Miami and Buffalo (SNF). That’s four road games in five weeks.
And that’s not all.
A Week 9 trip to Las Vegas begins a stretch of three straight games away from MetLife Stadium, visiting the Raiders, Cowboys, and Commanders. There’s a home stand versus New England in Week 12 before a late-season bye in Week 13.
There aren’t many “gimmes” on the Giants’ sked. Most of their winnable matchups come on the road: at Arizona, at Washington, at Las Vegas, at New Orleans. Even if their luck in close contests balances out, it’s hard to find eight victories along the way.
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New York Giants betting overview
What will win bets: Plenty of points
The Giants are getting points in 10 of their 17 games in 2023, which feels a little funny considering this was a playoff team last season.
New York is an underdog of more than a field goal in five of those games while catching three points in two others after going 11-3 ATS as a pup in 2022 thanks in large part to strong fourth quarters.
The Giants boasted the No. 4 fourth-quarter EPA, ranked No. 8 in DVOA at Football Outsiders in the final frame, and owned a +1.0 margin in the closing 15 minutes.
Not only did that leave the back door wide open in those games as big dogs (7-1 ATS when getting more than a FG) but it also led to a 13-6 record against second-half spreads and a 12-7 4Q ATS count.
Public perception is on the fence when it comes to the 2023 Giants, but a rough start to the season — which is very possible considering the SOS — will puff up spreads week to week. More of that late-game magic could keep the cash flowing for Big Blue bettors.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Giants defense looked much better than it truly was in 2022, finishing the campaign 28th in EPA allowed.
The stop unit took advantage of some pop-gun attacks early on but hemorrhaged points when New York ran into real offensive tests.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy schemes generated solid pressure, but the defense just wasn’t dangerous, with only 41 sacks (despite the sixth-highest pressure rate) and 19 total takeaways — just six of those on interceptions.
The schedule kicks the tires on that defense right out of the gate, facing potent attacks in Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, Buffalo, and the New York Jets all before Halloween.
The offseason moves focused on plugging the holes in the run game, after finishing dead last in Run Defense DVOA. But if the pass rush can’t start putting QBs on their back, it leaves a shaky secondary exposed. That unit ranked 24th in ProFootballFocus’ preseason poll.
New York Giants 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Dallas Cowboys |
+3 |
| 2 | @  Arizona Cardinals |
-4 |
| 3 | @  San Francisco 49ers |
+6 |
| 4 | vs  Seattle Seahawks |
-1 |
| 5 | @  Miami Dolphins |
+4.5 |
| 6 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+7 |
| 7 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-2.5 |
| 8 | vs  New York Jets |
+1.5 |
| 9 | @  Las Vegas Raiders |
+1.5 |
| 10 | @ Dallas Cowboys |
+5.5 |
| 11 | @ Washington Commanders |
-1.5 |
| 12 | vs  New England Patriots |
-1.5 |
| 13 | BYE | |
| 14 | vs  Green Bay Packers |
-2.5 |
| 15 | @  New Orleans Saints |
+2.5 |
| 16 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+7 |
| 17 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
-3 |
| 18 | vs Philadelphia Eagles |
+3 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
The first six weeks of the 2023 season couldn’t be any more different than the Giants’ opening six games of 2022. That daunting start sets the tone for a schedule ranked tops in toughness among many preseason projections.
My NFL power ratings factored in that slate as well as the season win total market and look-ahead lines when pegging New York as the No. 21 team in the league (41.17/100), which puts the Giants behind the Vikings and Bears and just ahead of the Packers and Panthers.
Week 1 has the G-Men hosting the rival Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, with the market bouncing between Dallas -3 and -3.5. My ratings pump out a spread just south of Cowboys -5. While divisional rivalries do deserve added respect, New York is 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS against the Cowboys since 2017, including a dismal 1-5 SU and ATS at home in those rivalry clashes.
We’ve highlighted the hard road ahead, but the calendar does get a little lighter from Week 12 onward. The Giants host the Patriots (-1.5) in Week 12 before a much-needed bye in Week 13. They host Green Bay (-2.5) on Monday Night Football in Week 14 and visit New Orleans (+3) in Week 15 before a home date with the Rams in Week 17 (-4) is bookended by two matchups with the Eagles.
Totals are pretty low for Giants games this season, with an average Over/Under of 43 points. New York, which finished 6-9 O/U in 2022, added some offensive weapons this offseason and is hoping that makes good on Daniel Jones’ new contract.
Tight end Darren Waller and WR Parris Campbell give Jones two big targets while Saquon Barkley and Jones’ crazy legs continue to be the motor on the turf. This group should improve from its “middle-of-the-road” rating in Year 2 under Daboll and Mike Kafka and with the defense up against legit scoring attacks, the Over holds value against these low O/U expectations.
New York Giants schedule spot bet
Week 11: @ Commanders
This Week 11 trip to the nation’s capital will be the Giants’ third straight road game and seventh away stop in 10 outings between September 17 and November 19. The Giants cross the country to play Las Vegas in Week 9 and hop to Dallas in Week 11 before coming back to the East Coast for this NFC East rivalry.
The G-Men were horrible against divisional foes last season, going 1-4-1 SU but 4-2 ATS. In fact, New York has only two wins inside the NFC East the past two years, with a 2-9-1 SU record and a 6-6 mark ATS. Put the Giants on the road in those NFC East encounters and they’re 1-5 SU and 4-2 ATS.
The look-ahead lines have a spread of New York +2 while my power ratings project a line of Giants -2. However, that’s before tempering those numbers due to the division rivalry and factoring in one of the toughest schedule spots in 2023.
Star power: Saquon Barkley props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +20,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 |
| OPOY | +5,000 | +4,000 | +2,500 |
| Rush yards leader | +1,500 | +1,400 | +1,300 |
| Rush TD leader | +2,000 | +1,400 | +1,500 |
| O7.5 rush TD | -110 | -112 | +100 |
| U7.5 rush TD | -110 | -112 | -130 |
| Rush yards total | 1,050.5 | 1,000.5 | 1,000.5 |
Best prop: Over 1,000.5 rushing yards (-112)
The 2023 projections are modest for Barkley, with most calling for fewer rushing yards than his 2022 output of 1,312. That said, the bulk of those models do have Barkley coming in over 1,000 yards for the season, with my number at 1,114 yards on the ground.
Barkley had Giants bettors nervous this spring with a potential holdout rolling into the regular season. But despite contract solidarity among the running backs in the league, Barkley quickly took the cash with New York offering him an incentive-juiced one-year deal worth as much as $11 million (with a $2 million signing bonus) rather than play for $10 million on the franchise tag.
Jones does have a deeper receiving corps and the Giants are paying him to pass, so the handoffs may not be as plentiful as they were in 2022 when New York ran on more than 47% of snaps. Some books have this prop as high as 1,050.5 yards O/U and some models are right on the total at 1,006 rushing yards, so get ready for a tight finish to this player prop.
New York Giants betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
Many are not as high on the Giants this year compared to last — and I put myself squarely in that group. They were lucky in the fourth quarter, ranking second in 4Q win percentage over expected, were outgained in yards per play in five of their wins, and Daniel Jones threw just 15 TDs — while being fairly lucky with his meager five INTs.
Jones just got paid and still lacks explosive deep talent in his receiving corp, while his rushing ability could open the door to a significant injury. This defense ranked 28th in EPA per play in 2022 and the Giants are favored in just six games this season — and only one by three points or more. Playing the AFC East is not going to help them reach the eight-win total and that -200 to not make the playoffs could look solid, especially after a possible 1-5 SU start to the season, while finishing third in the division at +150 is also in play.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
New York was perhaps the league’s greatest overachiever last season, picking up six outright wins as an underdog on its way to a surprise playoff appearance.
Brian Daboll was able to get a lot out of a little, but oddsmakers still aren’t taking them seriously as the Giants are ranked 21st on the Super Bowl futures odds board. Expect to again see the Giants underdogs often in 2023. They thrived in this spot last season, going 10-2 ATS, and I’ll be looking to back them as dogs this year.
Another Giants trend on my radar is the Under in their home games, which has hit in 15 of their last 21 home contests — and conveniently enough, they open the season as a home underdog vs. Dallas.
New York Giants trend to know
The Giants used to have issues with non-conference foes, but Brian Daboll helped correct course against the AFC in 2022. New York, which was 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS in non-conference games the previous four seasons, went a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS against the AFC last year.
One thing that did stick around in non-conference games was the substantial volume of Unders. The G-Men went 1-4 Over/Under in those five outings with AFC opponents in 2022 and are a collective 7-15 Over/Under in non-conference contests since 2018 — a 68% winning clip for the Under.
This year, the Giants take on the AFC East (and Daboll’s old team the Bills) along with Las Vegas in the non-conference calendar.
New York Giants non-conference games
- Week 5 @ Dolphins 45.5 O/U
- Week 6 @ Bills 47.5 O/U
- Week 8 vs. Jets 43 O/U
- Week 9 @ Raiders 43 O/U
- Week 12 vs. Patriots 41.5 O/U
