The Cincinnati Bengals battle the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, December 9 with both teams entering the weekend with the slimmest of playoff hopes. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington with the game airing on ESPN and ABC.
We’ve seen Joe Burrow have an excellent season in terms of his own personal numbers, but the team has really struggled. Can a trip to Dallas get them a valuable win?
Get your best Joe Burrow odds analysis and NFL picks for Monday Night Football right here.
Joe Burrow MNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Joe Burrow 3+ passing TDs
(+205 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Joe Burrow 3+ passing TDs
Joe Burrow Over 270.5 passing yards
Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD
(+364 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Joe Burrow MNF prop pick
My best bet
Pick: Joe Burrow 3+ passing TDs (+205 at FanDuel)
My analysis
There was real hope around the Cincinnati Bengals this season but they’ve truly failed to deliver. They’re unlucky in some ways, in that the AFC North has a great Ravens team and a Steelers team who have exceed all expectations this season, but despite that there’s a feeling the Bengals have really underachieved.
They came into the weekend ranking sixth in offensive DVOA yet, unless there’s a series of miracles, they won’t be competing in the postseason. That’s a huge shame and an organizational disaster, wasting another year of Joe Burrow’s prime.
This has been an incredible season for the quarterback on a personal level. He came into the weekend leading the NFL in passing yards with 3,337 as well as throwing more touchdown passes than anybody else. His competition percentage is amongst the best in the league for multi-game starters and he’s thrown just five interceptions.
Despite that, his season will be deemed a failure due to the shortcomings of his team.
Over the past month we’ve seen Burrow ascend even further, putting up four incredible performances back-to-back but ultimately being let down by his team again, going 1-3 in that timeframe. Over the past four games he’s thrown over 1,300 yards and 15 touchdown passes.
In each of those four games, he’s thrown for three or more scores. Given his form and the struggles of this Dallas Cowboys’ defense, I’ll take a big +205 price on Burrow to continue that trend on MNF.
The Cowboys have been good against the pass this season but in the past week they’ve only had two games allowing two passing touchdowns, against the Commanders and Eagles. That’s in part because of how poor their rushing attack has been, as well as the fact they’ve played Drew Lock’s Giants.
Given the strengths of the Bengals’ passing game, and what we’ve seen in recent weeks (in addition to the fact this game could be close thanks to the Bengals’ D), we should see them lean on their superstar quarterback.
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Joe Burrow MNF same-game parlay (SGP)
Joe Burrow 3+ passing TDs
Joe Burrow Over 270.5 passing yards
Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD
The Cowboys have only averaged 212.1 passing yards allowed per game this season, but we have to accept that they’ve played the bulk of their games (especially divisional games) against quarterbacks who don’t throw as much as Burrow or have his quality. Burrow's averaged 278.1 yards per game this season and has covered this total in each of his past three games.
If Burrow is throwing three or more passing touchdowns, then you'd better believe at least one will be to Ja'Marr Chase. He’s already got 13 receiving touchdowns this season and is in a great run of form with six touchdowns in his past three games.
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