The Los Angeles Chargers can clinch a playoff berth on Saturday if they can pull off the road victory against the New England Patriots in Foxborough.
The Patriots are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and my Chargers vs. Patriots player props and NFL picks for December 28 focus on a Chargers victory.
Chargers vs Patriots props
Maye u20.5 passing completions (-125 at BetMGM)
Herbert u0.5 interceptions (-140 at BetMGM)- Gibson o29.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Chargers vs Patriots props
Prop bet #1: Drake Maye Under 20.5 passing completions
Drake Maye has thrived in his rookie season by finding quick passes and avoiding the rush, but the New England Patriots rookie will struggle against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that thrives at taking away short passes.
The Chargers allow only 5.4 yards per attempt on passes under 10 air yards, which is ranked third in the NFL. They also boast the ninth-best sack percentage rate despite only blitzing at the 19th-highest rate in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Patriots allow the seventh-highest sack percentage in the league.
The combination of pressure and taking away short passes is key to this prop hitting. If Maye takes a few sacks without being able to get a cheap dump-off, the Under is extremely likely to hit despite playing in a trailing game script. I like the Chargers defense to be able to do just that.
Prop bet #2: Justin Herbert Under 0.5 interceptions
Justin Herbert sits alone as the only starting quarterback in the NFL who has not thrown an interception without being pressured all season. That is great news against a defense that struggles to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
Despite blitzing at the sixth-highest rate, the Patriots enter with a quarterback pressure rate of only 29.7%. Because of that, they have only forced seven interceptions on the season, which ranks 25th in the NFL.
Herbert has only thrown three interceptions all season, and the likely leading game script will limit the amount of opportunities for the Pats to create a turnover.
Prop bet #3: Antonio Gibson Over 29.5 rushing yards
Although the Chargers' defense has been air-tight against the passing attack, they sit 17th in rushing yards surrendered and 27th in rushing yards per play. They also rank 28th in run stuff percentage and 30th in yards after contact per attempt.
Although Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has only forced a missed tackle on 21.0% of his touches this season, Antonio Gibson has done so on 36.5% of his rushes, which is the third-highest rate among NFL running backs with at least 50 carries this season.
In a trailing game script, Gibson is more likely to be on the field than Stevenson. Gibson has eclipsed this total in three of his past four games, and I expect him to make the most of his touches on Saturday.
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