It's another first among two new conference foes when Oregon plays host to Maryland tonight.
Oregon has earned the number one spot in the land and will come into this one off a dominant, never-in-question win at Michigan. With the way the offense has been humming along, my Maryland vs. Oregon predictions expect plenty of points in Eugene.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, November 9th. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, with the game airing on the Big Ten Network.
Maryland vs Oregon prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 58.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
For my best bet, I went back and forth between an Oregon Team Total and the game total. Ultimately, I landed on the full game total and am going with the over. I believe Maryland can do its part here, so let's start with that part of the handicap. There's a pretty wild disparity between my projected total of 63.5 and this number, so I'm happily grabbing this number.
Oregon's rushing defense hasn't been exploited significantly this year. One big reason is that teams often need to catch up to the Ducks and resort to the pass. But the difference is that the Terps will remain committed to the run. When they do, they can exploit a rushing defense that ranks 101st in the country in EPA allowed per run.
This may result in the clock running quicker, but the result will ultimately be points. If Maryland has done anything well this season, it's consistently gotten chunk runs from various tailbacks. They'll enter this game with three players: Roman Hemby, Nolan Ray, and QB Billy Edwards Jr., who all have over 40 carries and a success rate of 40% when running the ball.
Oregon is on the other side, and honestly, I shouldn't have to say much about why it will score.
The offense is perhaps a touchdown from a season ago in terms of explosiveness, but it still has one of the best offensive coordinators in the sport, Will Stein, and one of the best quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel. Here, it should have plenty of options against a lackluster Maryland defense.
What should alarm Maryland heading to this cross-country for this matchup? The weakest portion of the Maryland defense has been the secondary. From a pure metric standpoint, it ranks 100th nationally per dropback, and what's put on paper heading into this game could be better, too. Maryland has allowed back-to-back 300 passing-yard games to its previous two opponents. Neither of those is precisely stellar either. One is Miller Moss from USC, who came into the season with high expectations but just recently lost his starting spot, and the other is against Max Brosmer, who has been primarily average this season. It begs the question, what happens when they face one of the best in the sport?
Both of these teams have clear routes to scoring. Oregon should do most of the heavy lifting for us, but Maryland should be able to run the ball and push it over the edge. Give me the Over.
Maryland vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 58.5
Evan Stewart anytime TD
Roman Hemby anytime TD
We are correlated here, but with limited options in the betting market, we had to be. We paired two players to score touchdowns with our best bet.
The first Evan Stewart. Every time I watch Stewart, I'm seemingly more impressed. Numbers-wise, he's the most efficient pass catcher for Oregon, and he certainly lives up to that on film. I like him to score six against a poor secondary.
The last leg is Roman Hemby, who is to find paydirt. Even though his carries have dwindled over the past two weeks, Hemby has still had a nose for the end zone with two scores in three games. The matchup is favorable for him to make it three in four.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maryland vs Oregon odds
Maryland vs Oregon live odds
Maryland vs Oregon opening odds
- Maryland vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -25.5
- Maryland vs. Oregon moneyline: Maryland +1,300, Oregon -3,000
- Maryland vs. Oregon Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Maryland vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis
- These two teams have never met in school history.
- Maryland has been a great Over team recently with eight of its last ten games going that direction on the total.
- Not only has Oregon won ten straight games, but they've also covered four straight in the process.
- Maryland's recent losses have mostly been blowouts, with just one cover in the last five games.
Maryland vs Oregon betting trend to know
Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 5% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Maryland vs Oregon.
Maryland vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
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