The Iron Bowl features an Auburn team hoping to reach a bowl game, and an Alabama squad seeking to somehow sneak into the College Football Playoff.
This game will be decided by the battle in the trenches, so it’s fitting to focus on three rushing totals in my top Auburn vs. Alabama player props for Saturday’s key SEC showdown.
Auburn vs Alabama props for Week 14
Jam Miller Under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Payton Thorne Over 19.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Jarquez Hunter Over 77.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-30.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Auburn vs Alabama college football player props
Prop bet #1: Jam Miller Under 45.5 rushing yards
The Auburn Tigers’ run defense is one of the best in college football. The Tigers rank 21st in success rate against the run, with a stuff rate of 22% and a front seven allowing just 2.4 line yards per rushing attempt.
And while the Alabama Crimson Tide ranks 25th in EPA/run, the Tide rank just 67th in rushing success and middle of the pack in offensive line metrics. Many of their big plays have come from the legs of Jalen Milroe, who actually leads the team in rushing attempts and yards.
While Jam Miller is the starting back for the Tide, he isn’t what you’d consider a work horse. He’s got about a 2-to-1 split with backup Justice Haynes, who has carried the ball 33 times the past five games compared to 56 for Miller.
The concerning thing for Miller is that he’s not made the most of those carries. He’s averaged 3.8 yards per carry or fewer in four of his last five games, including just 24 yards on eight carries against Mercer. And he’s not topped the 50-yard mark since rushing for 140 yards on 15 carries against USF — which was back on September 7.
Miller has gained 46+ yards on the ground only once in his last eight games, and had only 45 last week against an Oklahoma defense that is similar to what Auburn will throw at him. With the Tigers loading up the box to force Milroe to beat them with his arm, my Auburn vs. Alabama predictions believe he's going to find space difficult to find as he goes Under his total.
Prop bet #2: Payton Thorne Over 19.5 rushing yards
Alabama has had its share of problems stopping quarterbacks this season when they’ve taken off running. The Tide allowed Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold to run wild last week, as he gained 131 yards on 25 carries. And when they lost to Tennessee, they gave up 44 yards on nine carries to Nico Iamaleava.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has double-digit carries (including sacks) in six games this season, and he’s run for at least 20 yards in four of those contests. And while he’s not someone who is known for his rushing ability, he’s broken a run for 10+ yards in seven of his 10 starts this season.
Thorne also has rushed for at least 27 yards in each of his last two games, including 38 yards on 11 carries last week against Texas A&M. And while sacks take away from yardage totals in college football, the Tide are averaging just two sacks per game in SEC play.
For me, this number should be closer to 24 or 25 yards. Take Thorne to at least hit the 20-yard mark on your college football picks card as he makes at least one big play with his legs.
Prop bet #3: Jarquez Hunter Over 77.5 rushing yards
This prop opened with a line of 80.5 so I’ll happily take a lower number. That’s because Jarquez Hunter has been running with purpose of late and is poised to punish this Alabama front seven.
Auburn’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry in SEC play with 159.9 rushing yards per game, both of which are fourth-best in the conference. The offensive line is doing work, gaining 3.4 line yards per rush and 1.4 second-level yards per rushing play. Those are key reasons why the Tigers rank 16th in rushing success rate.
The Tide have a run stuff rate below 19%, and rank 65th in defensive run success. They’re allowing nearly 3.0 line yards per run, and have been getting bullied by SEC opponents who are averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 160 yards per game. Both marks rank in the bottom half of the conference.
They allowed Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson to run for 139 yards a few weeks ago, and gave up 107 yards on 18 carries to Oklahoma back Xavier Robinson. Missouri had two running backs go over 70 yards, while LSU even had a solid game as Caden Durham picked up 63 yards on only eight carries.
Auburn’s also been terrific at hitting chunk plays on the ground. The Tigers lead all teams in SEC play with 42 runs of 10+ yards, and Hunter’s got runs of 15+ in each of his last four games.
Alabama has a strong EPA/rush, but we’re not worried about anything but yardage here. Hunter has topped the century mark in three of his last four games, and has 90+ yards in six of his last nine. He’ll be a focal point of the offense, and he’ll carry us to profit.
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