The No. 11 ranked Wisconsin Badgers will open their conference schedule tonight with a clash at home against the Michigan Wolverines.
The Wolverines are just outside the rankings but have looked impressive in Dusty May's first year leading the program and that has me taking them with the points in my Michigan vs Wisconsin predictions.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big Ten clash on Tuesday, December 3.
Michigan vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet
Michigan +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Michigan Wolverines have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread so far in the Dusty May era. May previously helped turn around FAU, taking the Owls on a Cinderella run to the Final Four in 2023, and he seems to have changed the energy and culture in Ann Arbor after a tumultuous regime under Juwan Howard.
The Wolverines had a close early-season loss on the road against Wake Forest but have since beaten TCU, Virginia Tech, and Xavier by double digits.
They're coming off a 78-53 neutral site rout of the previously-ranked Musketeers, forcing 18 turnovers and holding them to 34% shooting. Michigan is second in the country in efficient height per KenPom and that length has helped them rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense.
The Wisconsin Badgers have also looked impressive, going 8-0 SU and 4-3-1 ATS. Their biggest victories have been against Arizona and Pittsburgh but they needed outlier performances from guard John Tonje to win those contests.
Tonje scored 41 points with a whopping 21 coming on three throws vs. Arizona and he had 33 points with 10 free throws against Pitt. Tonje typically gets to the line with ease but he'll have a tougher time doing that vs. a Michigan side ranked 19th in the country in opponent free throw rate.
In addition, Arizona and Pitt went a combined 9-for-46 from deep against Wisconsin, but according to ShotQualityBets the Panthers were expected to score eight more points on threes while the Wildcats should have scored 10 more.
The Badgers were fortunate those teams missed open shots, but that won't be the case against the Wolverines who are 31st in the country with a 38.5 3PT% and do a great job of moving the ball and spacing the floor with multiple shooters.
I'm expecting regression from Tonje and Wisconsin's perimeter defense, which has me taking the points with Michigan.
Michigan vs Wisconsin same-game parlay
Michigan +3.5
Under 150.5
John Tonje Under 19.5 points
This total looks a tad too high when you consider Michigan has been locking down foes, allowing just 60.1 ppg on 36.9% shooting. Although the Wolverines play at a breakneck speed, much of their transition scoring comes off turnovers and the Badgers are 10th in the country in turnover rate.
The Badgers are 168th in the country in adjusted tempo which is shocking since they've been outside the Top 300 in that category in every season since Greg Gard took over as head coach in 2015. They should slow down their pace now that they're in conference play.
John Tonje is averaging 22.9 ppg on 53/42/94 shooting splits. Considering his previous best season was as a senior with Colorado State in 2023 when he averaged 14.6 ppg on 47/39/82 shooting, he's bound to see significant regression.
He'll have a tougher time attacking the basket with skilled seven-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin protecting the rim for UM.
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Michigan vs Wisconsin odds
Michigan vs Wisconsin live odds
Michigan vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +2.5 | Wisconsin -2.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +125 | Wisconsin -150
- Over/Under: Over 150 | Under 150
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
The Wolverines are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 to the Under against Power Conference foes this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch Michigan vs Wisconsin
| Location: | Kohl Center, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Michigan vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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