In a clash of coaches who aren’t quite as good as their brothers, Bryce Drew leads the Grand Canyon Antelopes against Bobby Hurley and the Arizona State Sun Devils at Footprint Center in Phoenix with tip set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
With the Antelopes’ penchant for prioritizing offense over defense, I’m expecting a shootout in my Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State predictions and college basketball picks for Thursday, November 14.
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State prediction
My best bet
Over 149.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The key to this Over is the play of the Grand Canyon Antelopes. Bryce Drew’s squad is putting up 81.5 points per game (144th in the country) thus far, but allowing 75.5 (262nd).
Just like in the past two seasons when the Antelopes made the NCAA Tournament, the offense is leading the way. While Tyson Grant-Foster is no longer there to carry the load, Drew has a new transfer to lean on.
Former TCU forward JaKobe Coles is thriving as the go-to scorer in Grand Canyon’s offense, putting up 21 points and 12 rebounds per game through the Antelopes’ first two games, and will prove to be a tough player to stop for the Arizona State Sun Devils.
He’s not alone though, with Grand Canyon mainstay Rayshon Harrison in the backcourt — he’s put up 13.5-plus points per game in each of the last two seasons for Drew — and Collin Moore (16.5 PPG).
That trio should push a Sun Devils defense allowing 70 points per game through three games and just gave up 88 to Gonzaga in an eight-point loss. While the Sun Devils rank 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, the Bulldogs exposed some of their issues by attacking in the paint and going 18-for-22 from the free-throw line.
Grand Canyon is a perfect team to take advantage of the Sun Devils' foul frequency. The Antelopes are hitting the 11th-most free throws per game in the country (22.5) behind an offense that’s 62nd in adjusted efficiency.
However, Grand Canyon has proven that it does have issues on the defensive end. In wins against Cal State Fullerton and Western Kentucky, the Lopes gave up 72-plus points in each.
Neither of those teams is in the Top 175 in adjusted offensive efficiency, but the Sun Devils sit 99th. And Hurley’s squad showed against a Gonzaga defense that’s top 50 in adjusted efficiency that they can hang major points.
Leading the way for Hurley is guard Alston Mason. The Missouri State transfer is putting up 13 points per game and shooting 38.5% from behind the arc for an offense that’s Top 70 in threes per game (10.3).
The Sun Devils’ ability from deep will come in handy against a Grand Canyon team allowing opponents to shoot 39.5% from three — 329th out of 364 teams.
There’s enough scoring talent, and inconsistent defense, in this matchup for the Over to hit.
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State same-game parlay
Over 149.5
Grand Canyon 30+ 1H points
Arizona State +5.5
Thanks to a deep lineup of talented scorers, Grand Canyon is averaging 41 first-half points per game. The Antelopes should reach 30 with no problem against an Arizona State defense that puts opponents on the free-throw line and is inconsistent inside the arch — 206th in twos allowed (17.7).
With that said, I don’t expect Grand Canyon to win this in a blowout. The Sun Devils (67th) are ranked ahead of the Antelopes (71st) by KenPom and have the more competent defense.
And Arizona State just played Gonzaga and kept it close enough to cover. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon hasn’t been tested by a relevant team yet, with the 261st strength of schedule rating.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Grand Canyon vs Arizona State odds
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State live odds
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State opening odds
- Spread: Grand Canyon -4 (-110) | Arizona State +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Grand Canyon -180 | Arizona State +150
- Over/Under: Over 149 (-110) | Under 149 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State betting trend to know
Arizona State has hit the game total Over in 19 of its last 33 games (+3.55 Units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State.
How to watch Grand Canyon vs Arizona State
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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