A pair of National Title contenders face off in NCAA hoops action tonight with the No. 13 Purdue Boilermakers hosting the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide.
Both programs went to the Final Four last year but the Boilermakers lost National Player of the Year Zach Edey in the offseason, and my Alabama vs. Purdue predictions expect his absence to be felt tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on Friday, November 15.
Alabama vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Alabama -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers are tough to beat at home, but the Alabama Crimson Tide travel extremely well. Last year, the Tide led the country with 87.3 points per game on the road with a sizzling effective field goal percentage of 55.1%.
Alabama returns the core of the team that advanced to the Final Four, including All-American point guard Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, and forward Grant Nelson. They've added Top-30 recruits Labaron Philon and Derrion Reid, but the biggest offseason acquisition was transfer center Clifford Omoruyi.
Alabama desperately needed a rim protector last season, and the 6-foot-11 Omoruyi fits the bill after averaging 2.9 blocks and 8.3 rebounds per game with Rutgers.
The Boilermakers are led by a backcourt of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith, along with forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. However, the loss of Zach Edey is going to be massively felt against top competition. When Edey went to the bench last season against quality opponents, Purdue's play often fell off a cliff.
Loyer and Smith are experienced ball-handlers that can shoot the deep ball but they don't have the athleticism to defend quicker guards, and Sears is one of the best in the business. Edey was a highly-efficient scorer inside and his absence is going to be felt even more on the defensive end of the floor since his size and shot-blocking ability clogged the paint.
The Boilermakers have been giving minutes to 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen and 7-foot-2 sophomore Will Berg, but neither has the mobility or skill to play at this level. That inability to defend has been on display in games against Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Yale.
The Islanders knocked down 50% of their shots from inside the arc while the Bulldogs shot 64.1% from 2-point range and scored 84 points. Purdue was fortunate the Bulldogs went just 8-for-26 from deep because their shooters were getting good looks at the basket. If Alabama gets open looks like that, they're going to make them.
Alabama vs Purdue same-game parlay
Alabama -2.5
Mark Sears Over 20.5 points
Over 164.5
The Tide are coming off an underwhelming offensive performance against McNeese State and they need Mark Sears to shoot the ball more after he took just eight field goal attempts in that contest.
Sears averaged 21.5 ppg on 51/44/86 shooting splits last year and proved that he could get buckets against elite competition when he dropped 24 points on 9 of 14 shooting versus UConn in the Final Four. The senior is a high-level shot creator and should be able to take advantage of a Purdue backcourt that won't be able to stay in front of him.
It's early in the season but the Boilermakers are fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while the Tide are sixth. Alabama has a lineup filled with talented scorers and Nate Oats' squad plays at a blazing fast-pace, ranking ninth in the country in adjusted tempo.
The Boilermakers generally prefer a slower pace but they have a tendency to get sucked into faster games against teams that like to run the floor. When you also consider their defensive struggles, the Over makes sense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Purdue odds
Alabama vs Purdue live odds
Alabama vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: Alabama -2 | Purdue +2
- Moneyline: Alabama -130 | Purdue +110
- Over/Under: Over 164 | Under 164
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Over is 25-12 in Alabama's last 37 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI) while going 23-15 in Purdue's previous 38 contests (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Purdue.
How to watch Alabama vs Purdue
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Friday, 11-15-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Alabama vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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