The Baylor Bears will look to avoid an 0-2 start when they face off against another Top 25 foe, the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Despite the Bears getting thrashed, our Arkansas vs. Baylor predictions expect a resounding bounceback by the home side tonight.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Saturday, November 9.
Arkansas vs Baylor prediction
My best bet
Baylor -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Surprise. The Baylor rim protection is still appalling.
In its opener against Gonzaga, my best bet for the Zags to go Over their team total cashed. A big part of that handicap was the Zags exploiting a rim defense last in college basketball a season ago. And it did.
Gonzaga got just over 47% of its points at the rim, which ranks in the 70th percentile of college basketball. Can Arkansas do the same? I don't think so.
Anecdotally, when you watch Arkansas, you feel something is missing, and there is a way to build continuity. Yes, it won against a solid mid-major team in Lipscomb, and yes, in some cases, its 16-point margin was enough to give you a cover.
However, the offense just looked disconnected in stretches. That's discerning, given you'd expect the Razorback's strength to overwhelm teams with athleticism.
Another big issue was the assist rate against a defense you'd think is fairly exploitable, and Arkansas registered an alarming 29%. It made up for the lack of fluidity in the halfcourt offense by forcing 15 turnovers and getting easy run-out baskets. I wonder if that happens against Baylor.
For all of the Bears' issues on Monday, they limited turnovers to a rate of just 14% and have been able to do that regularly. The defense can't be any worse than it was against Gonzaga, and its simple presence of being active could create issues for what appears to be a stagnant Razorbacks' offense.
On the other side of the ball, I'm not sold on this Arkansas defense for various reasons: It's not played together much, has a fair amount of youth, and the priors on a John Calipari defense.
The new Arkansas head man left Kentucky with back-to-back seasons that didn't include a Top 50 defensive efficiency finish in KenPom. It's quite a story for a coach who had a Top 10 one in about half his first ten seasons with the Cats'. If he seemingly "lost it" there, it's hard to see it be renewed so early in the season with Arkansas.
Arkansas vs Baylor same-game parlay
Baylor -4.5
Baylor team total Over 79.5
One note here is bet365 doesn't allow you to bet flat numbers in same-game parlays, so we had to take the -4.5 spread.
Almost 65% of Lipscomb's jump shots were defined as "open" when it faced the Razorbacks in the opener. The team just wasn't able to make them pay for him like they should. If Baylor isn't scoring at the rim,
I suspect it'll be able to make Arkansas pay for this with three well-proven jump shooters on the floor at once.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Baylor odds
Arkansas vs Baylor live odds
Arkansas vs Baylor opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +1.5 (-110) | Baylor -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas +105 | Baylor -125
- Over/Under: Over 154 (-110) | Under 154 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Baylor betting trend to know
Arkansas has hit the game total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Baylor.
How to watch Arkansas vs Baylor
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
Arkansas vs Baylor key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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