Best Warriors vs Rockets Props for Tonight: Houston Shuts Down Curry From Deep

The Houston Rockets have excelled at locking down perimeter threats this year, and their defenders are bound to affect Steph Curry’s output in tonight's Western Conference clash at the Toyota Center.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer ? Betting Analyst
Dec 11, 2024 ? 16:55 ET ? 4 min read
Steph Curry Golden State Warriors NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The NBA Cup quarterfinals have pitted arguably the NBA’s best perimeter defense against the best perimeter scorer in NBA history.

The Houston Rockets do not give up open looks from long range, and my NBA picks for Wednesday, December 11 focus on how Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors will be kept in check. 

Best Warriors vs Rockets props for tonight

Picks made on 12-11

Warriors vs Rockets player props for December 11

Prop bet #1: Steph Curry Under 24.5 points

-105 at bet365

The Golden State Warriors may be off to a strong start this season at 14-9, but their offensive rating is still middling, sitting No. 15 in the NBA on the year.

Frankly, that was mostly because of a strong start. In the last month, Golden State’s offensive rating has plummeted to No. 27, a drop so far it cannot be entirely attributed to twice playing the Timberwolves (No. 4 defensive rating in the last month).

That drop-off has impacted even Steph Curry. In the last month, he has fallen short of this rather modest prop in seven of 11 games.

The Warriors simply do not have enough offensive options to keep the defensive focus off their best player, and the Houston Rockets have a bounty of perimeter defenders to make Curry’s life miserable in this NBA Cup quarterfinal.

Prop bet #2: Buddy Hield Under 2.5 threes

+110 at bet365

Houston’s greatest strength is its ability to limit looks from deep. The Rockets give up only 36.4 3-point attempts per game, No. 6 in the NBA. That is impressive enough, but the shocking stat is that Houston allows opponents to make just 32.2% of their threes, leading the NBA.

No. 2 in the league is the Grizzlies’ defense at 33.1%. It is as close to No. 4 as it is to the Rockets at No. 1. Houston is that far and away ahead of the NBA in 3-point defense this season.

Tough break, Buddy Hield. The sharpshooter is making 3.3 threes per game this season and just 1.8 two-pointers. He has one tool in his belt this year, and that is the exact tool that the Rockets stymie.

Prop bet #3: Steph Curry Under 5.5 assists

+100 at bet365

Continue trusting Houston’s defense. It gives up just 21.6 assists per game, again well ahead of the rest of the NBA. There is some distinct correlation there: If opponents are missing 3-pointers, they are also failing many potential assists.

There is only one Warrior with an assists prop north of 3 but with the Under at even money. Thinking Curry will get six assists when the Rockets tend to not even give up 22 is bold.

Furthermore, this NBA Cup quarterfinal may induce tension. If this game remains as close as its 2-point spread expects, Curry is more likely to be taking shots himself than to be moving the ball around.

Doubting Golden State’s offense may not be the most enticing venture, but it has been the correct decision in the last month, just like it has been the correct choice to back Houston’s defense all season long.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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