Half the Las Vegas field has been set for the NBA Cup semifinals. Half of it will be resolved tonight, beginning with the Atlanta Hawks heading to face the New York Knicks.
Applaud the Hawks for making the quarterfinals, but Atlanta is still a middling team more often falling short of expectations than exceeding them. That should be enough to tilt any free NBA picks toward New York, particularly in Madison Square Garden.
My Hawks vs. Knicks prediction will embrace the better team — better in the standings, better against the spread, better in the NBA Cup — before tip at 7 ET on Wednesday, December 11.
Hawks vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Knicks -8 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
A year ago, the Atlanta Hawks were historically bad against the spread, going 29-54 when including the play-in loss to the Bulls. Historically bad.
The good news is, Atlanta has improved on that front this season. I mean, it was a low bar, a historically low bar, but improvement is still improvement. The Hawks are 10-15 ATS right now, on pace to cover the spread in 33 games this season.
Folks, reread those two paragraphs. Recognize that somehow this Atlanta roster construction based around Trae Young falls short of bookmakers’ expectations at a rate we cannot quite comprehend.
That has been true recently, too, falling short of the spread in each of the last two games and six of the last 10.
The same could be said of the New York Knicks of late, too, going 0-2 ATS in their last two, but focus on New York’s performance at home. On the season, the Knicks are 6-4-1 ATS at home. This month, they are 3-1 ATS at home.
Madison Square Garden has embraced Karl-Anthony Towns almost as much as Target Center did for nearly a decade. This month, Towns has 21.3 points at home with 16.7 rebounds. He has always been this player; some clowns are noticing only now because he is in New York.
In fact, the Knicks' one ATS loss at home this month was in a game without Towns available.
Backing New York because of Towns makes sense, as does fading Atlanta at all times.
Hawks vs Knicks same-game parlay
Knicks -8
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 rebounds
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 25.5 points
Always a strong rebounder, Towns is setting career highs on the boards in part because New York has so few other healthy post pieces right now. Towns is grabbing 34.4% of available defensive rebounds when he's on the floor this season, a career high.
The Hawks miss plenty of shots, No. 16 in the league at 46.3% from the field this season. Furthermore, Towns has cleared this prop in nine of 13 games in the last month, two of those exceptions coming simply by the hook.
The risk here is Towns’ scoring, but against the Hawks’ No. 19 defensive rating, expecting New York’s best shooter to capitalize is not an undue risk.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Hawks vs Knicks odds
Hawks vs Knicks live odds
Hawks vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +7.5 | New York -7.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +250 | New York -310
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Hawks vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as 7.5-point favorites on Monday afternoon, a number that unexpectedly dipped to -6.5 late that night. It began to climb again in Wednesday’s earliest hours, settling at -7.5 at most books.
- The total opened at 235.5 and quickly climbed to 237 Monday afternoon before taking a day off.
- Then Wednesday morning, the total plummeted before the sun came up, rallying back to 236.5 before dawn and settling at 237.
Hawks vs Knicks trend
Atlanta has covered the spread in just 34 of its last 87 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Knicks.
How to watch Hawks vs Knicks
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Hawks vs Knicks latest injuries
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