The Atlanta Hawks face off against the New York Knicks in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals tonight.
This will be a duel between Trae Young and Jalen Brunson and my NBA picks include player props for both of those star point guards.
I'm also betting against another Atlanta guard in the midst of a historic season with my best free Hawks vs. Knicks props for December 11.
Best Hawks vs Knicks props for tonight
Young Under 21.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Brunson Over 2.5 threes made (-150 at bet365)- Daniels Under 2.5 steals (+125 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-11
Hawks vs Knicks player props for December 11
Prop bet #1: Trae Young Under 21.5 points
I'm not fading Trae Young because I necessarily think he'll have a poor game but because oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his change in playing style over the last month. Young has seen his shot attempts drop as he gets more comfortable with sharing the rock and trusting his teammates to score.
Young has scored fewer than 21.5 points in 11 of his last 14 games and he's averaging a modest 18.1 points per game during that span. He's also taking 15.1 field goal attempts per game during that stretch while racking up a whopping 13.0 assists per game. That's a far cry from his production in the first 10 games of this season when he averaged 24.9 ppg on 18.9 FGA with 11.1 apg.
The Atlanta Hawks offense has been more multifaceted this season with Jalen Johnson (19.8 ppg) and De'Andre Hunter (19.3 ppg) also filling up the hoop. As long as they're in the lineup, Young won't have to play hero ball and throw up ill-advised shots.
Prop bet #2: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes made
The Over 2.5 threes for Jalen Brunson opened at -130 and while it's been bet up to -150, there's still value in backing the New York Knicks star point guard at that number.
The Hawks have tightened up defensively over the last few weeks but they still rank 28th in the league in scoring defense (119.8 ppg). They've really struggled to close out perimeter shooters, ranking last in the league in opponent 3-point percentage (38.7%) and threes allowed per game (16.0).
Brunson has knocked down at least three treys in 10 of his last 14 games, shooting a sizzling 45.8% from deep during that span. He also torched the Hawks when these teams previously clashed on November 6, going 4 of 11 from beyond the arc.
Prop bet #3: Dyson Daniels Under 2.5 steals
Dyson Daniels leads the NBA with an incredible 3.2 steals per game, which is why the Under 2.5 on his steals tonight is installed at plus money. However, when you consider that nobody has finished a season with more than 2.4 spg over the last decade, that level of production isn't sustainable long-term.
Daniels is coming off a five-steal performance against Denver, but has still gone below this number in six of his last 12 games.
The Knicks do a good job of taking care of the ball, ranking sixth in the NBA in turnover rate and third in opponent steals per possession. They also play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league which will mean fewer possessions and fewer chances for Dyson to swipe the ball away.
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