Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder face off against the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup Final tonight.
SGA is the odds-on favorite to win the NBA Cup MVP and this in-season tournament could be his launching pad for regular-season MVP honors.
Here are my favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 17.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop picks for December 17
- Best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points
(-115 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 assists
(+525 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
My best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The O/U for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's points opened at 32.5 which is exactly what he has averaged through 13 NBA Cup games. That number looks a bit inflated when you consider the Oklahoma City Thunder guard has gone Under it in 18 of 25 games this season.
That said, his scoring output has ticked up over the last few weeks, and the Milwaukee Bucks are a great matchup.
The Bucks have struggled to defend opposing guards, ranking 29th in the league points per game allowed to PGs (26.2 ppg). It's been especially ugly lately, with the Bucks surrendering 35 points to Trae Young, 32 to Jalen Suggs, and 34 to Dennis Schroder in their last three games, respectively.
In the analytics era, Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the rare examples of a star who takes a high volume of shots from midrange. He also leads the NBA with 8.0 points per game scored on isolation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 21st at defending isolation plays per ShotQuality Bets while ranking 23rd at defending midrange shots.
In addition, SGA does a great job of drawing fouls and Milwaukee has struggled in that area over the last couple of games. The Bucks allowed 34 free-throw attempts in their last game and gave up 27 shots at the charity stripe in their previous contest.
Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 assists
Despite being anchored by All-NBA power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee hasn't been great on the boards. The Bucks are 21st in rebounding rate and SGA has grabbed 6+ boards in six of his last eight contests.
Trading for Alex Caruso in the offseason was another smart move by Sam Presti. Not only has Caruso's veteran leadership been important for this young team but he has great synergy with Gilgeous-Alexander.
With Caruso's defensive ability, Gilgeous-Alexander can expend more energy on the offensive end of the floor and Caruso is also a good passer who looks to get the ball into SGA's hands. Caruso has racked up at least a pair of dimes in his last five games and had four assists when SGA dropped 39 points against the Mavs last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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