The Golden State Warriors have lost three straight and nine of their last 11, and travel on Saturday night to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves - winners of six of their last eight.
But one of those two losses was to the Warriors, and now with these teams playing for the third time in the last two weeks, Golden State should have the familiarity to play inside the +3 spread.
Continue reading my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 21st.
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Warriors +3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Things have been bleak for the Golden State Warriors ever since their surprising 12-3 start, now losers of nine of their last 11 and having fallen to 14-12.
During that stretch they have been the fourth-worst team by net rating, which includes the fourth-worst offensive rating and eighth-worst defensive rating marks during that time.
And while the NBA is a game of stretches, both inside any given game but also across any given timeframe of the long season, sometimes there is a nuance that provides opportunity.
Take the Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves, for example, who, in a weird scheduling quirk, will play their third game against each other in a span of just over two weeks.
That level of frequency and familiarity creates a weird vacuum where the players and coaches are playing an almost faux playoff series, and they have traded blows like such despite the Warriors having been one of the league's worst during that time.
In the first matchup, Golden State dropped 107-90, as many would have expected them to, given their form at the time. But peculiarly, they answered back with a 114-106 win two nights later.
And what's stranger about that second game is that Minnesota shot better from three (45% vs 33%), shot more free throws (20 vs 14), and turned the ball over less (17 vs 14) in that second game, yet had a much different (losing) result.
If the +3 on the Warriors seems suspiciously short for tonight, it's because tonight is every bit of a coin flip. And in a coin flip, you always take the points.
Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Warriors +3
Anthony Edwards under 25.5 points
Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds
Anthony Edwards had 30 and 27 points in the first two contests, but that was abnormal for Steve Kerr's usual game plan for the young superstar.
Edwards managed to go over tonight's total of 25.5 points just once in his previous four against Golden State, and while he went over that mark in the last two, it took him making four and five three-pointers in each of those contests - something he had managed to do just once in his previous nine games against the Warriors despite similar volume.
In the paint, we should see Rudy Gobert turn in a solid performance on the glass. He failed to hit tonight's total of 11.5 in the two prior contests, but had hit that mark in 15 of his prior 17 games against Golden State.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +3 (-110) | Minnesota -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State (+135) | Minnesota (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 215 (-110) | Under 215 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State is still 15-11 against the spread this year despite their recent stretch of losing, which is good for the ninth-best cover rate in the league.
- As road underdogs, the Warriors have gone 5-3 ATS.
- Minnesota has done exactly the opposite at 11-15 ATS, good for the eleventh-worst cover rate in the league.
- To emphasize how playoffs-esque this third matchup in two weeks is, tonight's total of 215.5 is tied for the Warriors' lowest on the season and is the seventh-lowest for Minnesota.
Warriors vs Timberwolves trend
The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNNOX/KARE 11, NBCSBA |
Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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