undermysac

Got lucky enough to push the 1H, what a shit show. 

I sure don't want to see the Seahawks in the playoffs, that wouldn't be fun at all.

Get free soon Shrimp 

They fired Eberflus for poor clock management. 

Guess the grass ain't greener

Nice, I hope it gets back there. Still plenty of public $ to come by gameday

Why is Shrimp in the slammer?

Always sound reasoning, good luck 

Raining now Cy, but I'll root for you 

Caleb Williams 18.6 epa on deep passes is the lowest in the nfl this season 

The Rams have gotten the most steam of any line it seems like. Makes sense though. I read that the Cardinals on their flight home from Carolina were dead silent. The beat reporter said it felt like flying to a funeral. 

Good Luck, you have nice weather and a shitty Bears D on your side.

The Bears o line might be a problem though. 

It was eerily pleasant today. It's also very humid, there was a dense fog in the morning. The ground was wet all day but it didn't rain. I didn't really feel any wind at any point in the day.

Good to see you LV.

Good Luck 

You're welcome 

@justliketoplay

 Yes I did say that in another thread.

I just wanted to put a different perspective out there for everyone to see.

Cause lord knows that this year is different. Dogs aren't cashing, home teams aren't cashing, the trends and fade the public stuff that we relied on in the past are failing us.

I don't know what is exactly going on, but the betting landscape is different. 

But in the end, it's a wonky sport, anything can happen. I'm not here to beat my chest and say "told you so".

Hopefully I can just help, if I can. We'll see.

GL 

Billy Madison couldn't of said it better 

I can tell you that the o line problems going into tonight are pretty bad for the Bears, just from watching all their games this year. But here's some pff grades.

Starting LT Braxton Jones(77.4 overall) 80.8 pass blocking. He's out.

Replacement Larry Borom(48.1 overall) 54.4 pass blocking. He's played more guard than tackle in a reserve roll this year.

Starting LG Tevon Jenkins(75.4 overall) 75.8 pass bblocking. He's out.

Replacement...I don't know. Bates and Murray are on IR. Doug Kramer Jr is questionable. His overall grade is 28.5 and has played only 85 snaps.

The only other option is Chris Glasner. I've never heard of him. Looks like he was elevated from the practice squad this week. He's played one offensive snap this year.

If anyone wants to evaluate the Seahawks d line, this would be the point to do so. I know that Leonard Williams is a bad ass, and Jarran Reed is decent. The Hawks run a 3-4 scheme.

Ok folks, let's look at some things and put them into perspective. Let's dissect the coaching dichotomy of this Bears team. As opposed to all these broad stats n trends that are being spewed ad nauseum via social media and podcasts.

Let's start in week 11.

After week 10's loss to the Patriots, the Bears fired OC Shane Waldron. The dude was losing his players, and it became apparent that this was the wrong hire in the first place. What ensued was the promotion of pass coordinator Thomas Brown to OC. Supposedly a players coach, and he was a guy that did the job well. He called plays from the booth, this is more important than most will think.

Little did anyone know, that this gig would last just 3 weeks. New OC, calling plays from the booth. And as so many have mentioned from a broader view of Caleb/the offense in this time period, it was vs the Packers, Vikings, and Lions. Stout divisional competition. Here's what it looks like by the #"s in those games:

22 ppg, #13 epa per play, #15 success rate, #14 drop back epa, #8 rush epa.

The Bears went 3-0 ats, covering the line by a 3.83 average margin.

After the Bears inexplicable loss to the Lions in week 13, due to time management blunders by Coach Eberflus, he was fired.

So how are the Bears going to look moving forward? First off, Eberflus was basically the defensive coordinator with the Bears. As much of a dipshit as he was as a HC, the dude ran a solid defense.

Here's their defensive #'s from week 1 to week 13(12 games), and it includes the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary.

19.83 ppga, #9 epa per play allowed, #10 success rate, #7 drop back epa, #22 rush epa. *note, the Bears rush defense began to significantly fall when DT Andrew Billings got hurt in week 9 vs the Cardinals. A game that Montez Sweat didn't suit up, they got trampled*

So there's a lot to think about at this point, a lot of moving pieces. Thomas Brown got promoted to HC when Flus got fired. He's gone from pass coordinator, to OC, to HC in a 1 month span. On top of all this, his role as HC requires him to be on the field. He's still calling plays. Now some dudes prefer calling plays on the field, and are capable of doing it. But they're used to it, they're comfortable. Thomas Brown is no where near comfortable doing this in such a short span. We don't even know if he's qualified for the job in any way.

Since he's been HC, here are the Bears offensive #'s:

14 ppg, 25th epa per play, 25th success rate, 22nd dropback epa, and 32nd rush epa.

Let's not forget that the defense lost Eberflus, Eric Washington was promoted from d line coach to DC. This dude was a career d line coach, having only 2 years as a DC in 2018/2019 in Carolina. Where they were 19th and 31st in points against.

Here's the defensive #'s since he's been in charge:

34 ppga, 32nd epa per play allowed, 31st success rate, 31st dropback epa, 30th rush epa allowed. 

That's all for now. Be careful what you step into.

I took the Seahawks -3(-105) for the 1H, 1 unit. 

Good Luck 

@fubah2

 It's not so impressive if you watched him all year.

He'll take a sack in a heart beat instead of letting it rip.

He's safe, yes. But maybe too safe. There's a reason that the Bears never play with a lead.

Possibly, who knows. At least they have 10 days rest in pocket following today's game.

Good luck 

Where's ABN? Witness protection program?

But this game is on Thursday. You think the Seahawks don't try hard because the Rams play on Sunday?