iConsciousness

Nothing in the 1H showed me that a couple of touchdowns will be scored in the 2nd. But I'm rooting for you (and everyone else that wants to see an exciting game) 

Which one is the shitty bear?

BOL, Red. 

Raiders (-1) @ Saints

I'm not sure you watch this game even if it was the only game playing this week. But it's a game listed in every sportsbook and, as such, I must present a brief write-up for it to honor the sanctity of the CD Newsletter. The first thing I'd like to bring up is the record for both clubs. The Raiders are dwelling at the bottom of their division, and are tied with the worst record in the AFC, along with the Jags, Titans, and Browns, as they sit at 3-12. They have only won 1 more game at home, which as of late hasn't been much of a homefield advantage for the Raiders. On the flip side, the Saints are sporting a 5-10 record and will probably lament over not being able to take advantage of such a weak division. (Both the Falcons and Buccs are atop the NFC South with a 8-7 record.) In a game where it's difficult to find angles, one could point to the fact that both teams will be searching for a franchise QB. Reports out of N'awlins is that it doesn't seem like the the Saints will be moving on from Carr next year. Perhaps the front office can point back to the injuries that have plagued the team and how Carr was able to lead the Saints past the Lions earlier in the season. He has 2 more years left on his contract and the Saints (again) are well over the cap next year. It would make sense to set the foundation for life after Carr -- whether it be a true franchise QB to sit and learn behind him, or someone to outright replace him next year. I suspect whomever the Saints end up hiring as HC next year will have a major say in this. (If not, I wouldn't want to work for a franchise with an all too controlling FO.) Speaking of Carr, the Saints will be facing his former team. This would've been the first game Carr would face against his old team had he been able to be healthy for it. Instead he'll just do the usual exchange of pleasantries with former teammates before and after the game. A major incentive ("the revenge angle") squandered when looking for betting angles! 

Antonio Pierce is probably not long for this job. Maxx Crosby has hinted he wants out. Mark Davis now has allowed for Tom Brady's input regarding moves. (To what extent, I don't know -- but I say let him provide talent evaluation for drafts and personnel recommendations.) This is probably why Pierce is playing to win. He's going to be playing for his next job as some type of coordinator or assistant coach. You could say the same for Darren Rizzi, the interim head coach of the Saints. He was a ST coordinator and assistant head coach prior to being elevated to interim manager. He'll either be playing to retain his previous titles or look to strengthen his resume for whichever other team decides to hire him.

Why am I writing all this background stuff? Well, because what else do you write about when a 3-12 team faces a 5-10 team, with the head coaches and quarterbacks playing in this game? There's a significant difference in total DVOA between the two teams. Saints @ -8.6% vs Raiders @ -22.3% and nearly as bad when the VOA isn't adjusted. 

I don't really have any thoughts on this game, to be honest. If anyone else does, feel free to chime in. This game is one of a few Draft Bowls. Who'll get the higher pick?

Damn, I should've placed bets on both. 

Also, I meant to write DVOA.

Back to the Ravens game, they obliterated the Texans. I hope the Chargers play them (Texans) in the WC round. 

If I'm up after the the wife and kid sleeps, I'll put up a few thoughts on the Saints/Raiders game. It's her one I unintentionally left out. 

Next time fart near the exotic cheese aisle. People will be flocking towards it thinking it's some new fancy variety. A brie from France, perhaps.

@soup

@bigred

@biscuit

@dubz

@cy

@sac

Thanks. 

Dubz, I suppose I overlooked totals because I'm not particularly good with them. 

Hey all, when drafting the newsletter I was going by what my book was posting. It looks like they didn't have the Saints/Raiders game up at the time, so I inadvertently left the game out. I wonder why you guys didn't say anything? (They have it now, but it's unbearable with no lines posted.)

Anyways, that makes 2 games where there isn't at least one team with playoff implications on the line.

I'll share thoughts on that game later. For now, I'm going to slip back under the covers and let the family noise exist without me.

Is it too late to get this bet in? You make a convincing argument.

Ah, just read that there's a chance Jameis Winston nor Dorian Thompson-Robinson plays this week and it could be the Bailey Zappe Show.  Under 39.5?

As I sign off this Week 17 CD Newsletter, i want to wish all my PB brothers a Merry Christmas (and Happy Holidays, in general). Hopefully there's some extra money in our pockets to wind down the year. 

Dolphins (-6.5) @ Browns

We all know how the Dolphins fare playing in the cold. The Browns aren't a crappy team. They're just a shade below average in my opinion and would possibly have a better record sans Watson's contribution earlier in the season. The Browns also lost Chubb, but imo he hasn't been the same since coming back from injury. If anything, he was there to give Jerome Ford a breather. But Ford has looked better with the ball. As for the weather, while it won't be frigid, there's a 67% chance of rain on Sunday. It'll be 54 degrees, which as a Southern Californian is plenty cold for me. Here's an interesting stat. Tua is 0-7, with abysmal stats, in cold weather games of 45 degrees or less. Will the forecast show it get colder this Sunday, between now and then? Is there a big difference between 54 and 45? (I'm relying on you cold weather comrades to chime in here.) The Dolphins are 2-6 away and the Browns are 2-5 at home. Something's gotta give. I'd honestly want to take the Browns with the points here, but in this day and age of tanking for a better pick, and with the Browns looking to replace Watson with a new QB (draft? free agency?), I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. 

I have to venture into 2nd paragraph territory here, because I haven't even written about playoff implications for the Dolphins. They're an extreme bubble team, meaning they have to win out and get a lot of help. Just to stay alive for one more week, they're going to need either the Broncos or Chargers to lose. Both of those teams play the day before, so if one of them falters, the Dolphins have to max effort this win. If both teams win on Saturday, the motivation won't be there for the Dolphins and then all it really is, is just Tua trying to kill the cold weather game narrative. I don't know if lines get affected by playoff implications, but if the lines stay the same after the Chargers and Broncos win, I'd take the Browns with the points.

Packers @ Vikings (-1.5)

The Vikings are a complete package, and they're playing at home. Both teams have a clinched a playoff spot, but there's seeding ramifications and even the NFC North up for grabs. Both teams still have a lot to play for, but the Vikings are 7-1 at home and are on a 8 game win streak. Their only loss at home was against a Lions team at full strength, and they only lost by 2 points. They also beat the Packers in Green Bay earlier this year. It's a small spread to cover, and 2 points is how much they beat the Packers by. With the way the Vikings have been playing, and playing at home, the Vikings -1.5 is an official play for me.

MNF

Lions (-2.5) @ 49ers

Give me the Lions here. They're dealing with injuries, that's the most notable part. Making matters worse was losing Montgomery last week. But, hey, guess what? The 49ers are too. I think there might be only 2 better offensive geniuses than Shanahan -- Sean McVay and Ben Johnson. I'm petering out so I won't spare many thoughts on this game. Everything I've said about the Packers and Vikings also apply to the Lions. The Eagles, Packers, and Vikings can also threaten the #1 seed. Seeing how the games play out earlier in the week/day should give more insight on what the Lions do with their players, but chances are they will need to compete. The 49ers still have some pop on offense, but they're down to their backup, backup, backup RB. Nick Bosa seems to be ailing on defense. The Lions are undefeated on the road (a circumstance of their away schedule?), and I think they can withstand the loss of Montgomery with the way Gibbs has been playing. Jameson Williams looks to be coming along now too. Give me the Lions here.