Froggy's Ultimate Martingale 2024-25 Season

@Froggy80

 It's good to have you back, I will definitely wait for your plays to compare with mine and a long with my favorite cappers, and Bol.

I would not use my picks for full game picks. I¡¯ve checked the stats for that and it¡¯s literally a 50-50 probability.

Wow! Unreal. OKC got swept tonight.

@Fuse

You do what you want, brother. This is the longest comment I¡¯ve seen from you. You can¡¯t blame me for thinking you were a bot. I wasn¡¯t trying to be offensive. It was a case of mistaken identity. 

@Froggy80

 It¡¯s all good man. I just have never told anyone they should get a life or called anyone a bot. I¡¯ve been doing this for some time now and while I comment a lot I notice what people are picking and I use it as a tool. I figure I¡¯m already in their thread and looking at their pick so the least I can do is drop a peace and good luck. I do post plays and I do win money from this technique. Gambling is tough and wacky stuff happens all the time. I¡¯m sorry if people think they know me or why I do what I do but truth is¡­.who cares? Apparently some people do and are so focused on relying on other people to make their picks they concern themselves with others. 
I respect your picks and wish you all the best.

Take care 80 

Sweeps Update since last post:

12/6/2024 - Portland Trail Blazers 
12/7/2024 - Denver Nuggets 
12/8/2024 - Indiana Pacers 
12/8/2024 - Atlanta Hawks 
12/8/2024 - Washington Wizards 
12/8/2024 - Los Angeles Clippers 
12/13/2024 - Philadelphia 76ers 
12/13/2024 - Cleveland Cavaliers 
12/14/2024 - Atlanta Hawks 
12/16/2024 - Utah Jazz 
12/17/2024 - Oklahoma City Thunder  (yikes)


Two major updates to the system have been made (aside from the aforementioned fix):

1. I added the 2018 - 2019 season data to further backtest the model.
2. I found additional pockets of value in the model, increasing the pick count without introducing any additional risk.

When I first brought the model to you, the pick rate was 5.92% of the overall games. Through the additional pockets of value, I've uncovered an additional 2.18%, which bring the pick rate up to 8.1% of all games. That's an increase of 36.8% picks.

What does it mean?

It means that we're looking at around 70+ additional picks for the rest of this season.

Since 2018 (with the additional data), the model displays a record of 644 wins - 2 losses (there was +1 loss from the new season update). This is not based on my posts, just the model output.

2018 - 2019 - 116 Wins - 1 Losses
2019 - 2020 - 59 Wins - 0 Losses
2020 - 2021 - 92 Wins - 0 Losses
2021 - 2022 - 105 Wins - 1 Losses
2022 - 2023 - 122 Wins - 0 Losses
2023 - 2024 - 113 Wins - 0 Losses
2024 - 2025 - 37 Wins - 0 Losses

That's all for now.


I don't have any picks for the next 2 days, unless odds change from now to game time tomorrow or Friday, but I think there's at least one pick coming on Saturday. I'll keep you guys posted.

Until then, Best of Luck to all of you! 

Sweeps Update since last post:

12/19/2024 - Utah Jazz 
12/19/2024 - Boston Celtics 
12/19/2024 - Golden State Warriors  
12/19/2024 - Minnesota Timberwolves 

No picks tonight, but tomorrow and Sunday looks promising. We shall see. BOL everyone!

As long as Miami doesn't somehow dominate the Cavs tonight, and none of the key players get injured and sidelined for tomorrow, we're looking at a Miami pick tomorrow eve. The system is expecting 1Q odds of +0.5, but I will confirm everything when Rotowire confirms the lineup.

... Doh! Miami bet is off (for now).

Jimmy Butler - ranked #1 on Miami's team. - GTD (but most likely out, with a tiny sliver of a chance that he'll be back to play)

Rotowire Analysis

Butler rolled his ankle in the first quarter of Friday's game, and he was ruled out shortly after due to a stomach bug, per NBA reporter Chris Haynes. While Butler won't travel with the Heat, Winderman relays that the All-Star wing could rejoin the team in time to be ready for Saturday's 7:00 p.m. ET tipoff. Jaime Jaquez started for Butler in the second half of Friday's game, and the former could be in the Heat's starting lineup if the latter is unable to play Saturday.

Sweeps Update since last post:

12/20/2024 - Sacramento Kings 
12/21/2024 - Portland Trail Blazers 
12/21/2024 - Houston Rockets 

One pick for today, but a bunch of games coming soon.

Chicago Bulls - (system shows 1Q odds +0.5)

IMPORTANT!

Picks are NULLIFIED when:

1. Two or more key players (ranked 1-6 on the team roster) are sidelined
2. 1Q odds move to worse than pk

@Froggy80

 Today's pick?

@Ogaga828

Trick question? No games today.

Appreciate your consistent posting Froggy. Love your system. GL the rest of the year, keep it up