Froggy's Ultimate Martingale 2024-25 Season

@Doc_Holliday

Unfortunately, I don¡¯t have picks until the odds are posted and team rankings are updated. I have leans by early A.M.

It has been a boring few days without any picks, but that was my fault. I tweaked the metrics and now we should be seeing more hits.

No harm, no foul I suppose. Moving along... since the last post, there were 3 clean sweep matches.

Clean Sweeps:

12/3/2024 - Detroit Pistons 
12/4/2024 - Los Angeles Lakers 
12/4/2024 - Milwaukee Bucks 

We have a pick for tonight!

Toronto Raptors (system expect 1Q odds +3.0)

As a side (hopefully, exciting) note, I'm created a tool that can be used to compare two teams on several metrics side by side, but also on a league level. The trouble I've had with understanding stats is... while I can clearly tell that one team has better stats than the other, exactly how much better are they? This tool uses standard deviations for each stat using the entire league stats as a range. This allows me to see exactly where the team stands in contrast to the entire league. I also color-coded the metrics to visualize the intensity of each stat. I don't know how it'll translate into bets, but if you have any ideas... I'd be willing to lend you a ear/eye. Here's the sheet for today's matchups: Match Up Comparison Sheet

Let me know what you guys think.

Great job on the pics and thank you for this additional tool. I will definitely check it out! You're very kind. Ive been riding hot on Toronto, too. Had them for a 1st Q and Half pick:) Ridin the wave.

2Q here we go. Got +2 odds -114

The gut-wrenching 4Q bet... here we go...

Fuck. It happened. 

We'll get em next time, amphibious one

Ouch! lol 

All good brother we are about to go on a crazy win streak!

@Doc_Holliday

That is a very astute way of thinking, and I know you are right. Let¡¯s fucking go!

Hey Frog man, Is there a better site for 1st Q and first Half ATS and O/U records than bestodds? It seems he updates terribly and possibly inaccurately and it's screwing my world with what I'm trying to do. Any thoughts? Thank you. 

@Inverted_P3nith

This data is hard to find. Try sportsbookreview and odds shark. Sportsbookreview has archived data up til 2023. Odds Shark has historical data. Some games are missing so you need to be careful. Also covers has odds history as well.

Bad beat last night.   Toronto got swept and so did a bunch of units off my bankroll. 

But we're bouncing back tonight. If data means anything, we should see a strong performance tonight.

Cleans Sweeps Last Night:

Washington Wizards 
Toronto Raptors 

Tonight's Quarter Method Pick:

Minnesota Timberwolves (system expects 1Q odds of +0.5)

Instead of running a separate thread, I will be posting full game ATS picks here. The analysis tool is complete and you can view today's analysis here: Matchup Analysis

I'm keeping it very simple. If the line is out of whack compared to the analysis, I will be adding them here. We'll see how it does over the course of this season.

Full Game ATS Picks:

Atlanta Hawks -5.5
Chicago Bulls +3.5
Sacramento Kings -6.0

Thank you very much for all of that! You're very kind with your time. I also have the bulls and hawks. 

Ive got wolves and kings 1Q too. Ha. I've been doin well. Budweiser Frog:30 on sports nerd time

Is this chat officially dead?

I made a huge miscalculation, and it cost us. Oklahoma City was ranked #1 and I had a mistaken formula in the strong opponent filter. I allowed it to slip through the cracks. I fixed my mistake and there have been plays between my last post and now, but I feel demoralized because I let you guys down...

There aren't any plays for today or the 19th, but not sure how I want to proceed yet.

I'm looking for pockets of value in the data. When I first started this season, the historical picks were only 5.92% of all matchups. I've managed to increase that percentage up to 7.89% without additional risk. I've also added 2018-2019 backtesting data.

GL today 

What is the play? Are you a bot? I thought i needed a life...

@yanks21x

He comments once in a while, but usually a ton of auto-commenting.

@yanks21x

@Froggy80

 I watch a lot. 

@yanks21x

 Worry about yourself or maybe your life 

Apparently wishing a ton of people good luck and peace is a problem for some. I use my time to stay positive and watch trends in what people are picking. I use as many tools as possible to maximize my picks. 

noted I will avoid your thread and the wanna be wife by yanks….