Froggy's Ultimate Martingale 2024-25 Season

Let¡¯s ride bro!

Portland Trail Blazers - 1Q win

Brooklyn Nets - 2Q win

Not even a sweat. Net 1Q was a push, and 2Q secured the win.

Record: 7 - 0  

Congrats to all who tailed. 

Never a doubt! Glad I raised my unit size for these two blowout winners! No games tomorrow. Happy Thanksgiving chat!

@Froggy80

 Thank you!

@Froggy80

 Nice work. I had the nets and portland, too. Your 1st quarter win percentage is pretty impressive. Even at -115 it looks to maybe be a smart bet just on its own. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

@Inverted_P3nith

I've done the math behind that concept, and it's really not that impressive. Here is the breakdown for each season on record:

2019 - 2020   ---   53.19%
2020 - 2021   ---   44.26%
2021 - 2022   ---   62.67%
2022 - 2023   ---   53.13%
2023 - 2024   ---   59.15%
2024 - 2025   ---   57.14% (so far)

We're slightly above the average of 55.12% for this season, but it's still very much a mixed bag of results. I wouldn't bet my money on just a 1Q strategy for less than a 60% win rate.

Last night's battlefield was absolutely covered with mines. 6 out of the 14 matchups resulted in a team getting completely swept. Here are the results:

Record: 7 - 0

Clean Sweeps Last Night:

Washington Wizards
Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns

Thankfully, we were on the right side of the Nets vs. Suns matchup 

Onto the fun stuff. I have the early tip for tomorrow's games.

Post-Thanksgiving Picks

Los Angeles Clippers (system is expecting 1Q odds of +1.5)
Toronto Raptors (system is expecting 1Q odds of +2.0)

BOL! to all who chooses to tail. 

Reminder: Always wait for Rotowire to confirm the lineup. If 2 or more significant players are sidelined, it nullifies the pick.

@Froggy80

 Yo, is +2.5 the same as +2.0

@Ogaga828

No, +2.5 is better odds. For example if Toronto is down 28 - 30 in the first quarter, while a +2.0 is a push, +2.5 is a win. However, considering that you do not know this fact, I am reluctant in advising you further regarding the use of my system strategy because it requires that you understand odds, when to wager, how much to wager (incrementally increasing wagers), etc...

This is not an easy system to follow. If you miss a wager in the allowed few minutes between quarters, then you would be losing money. Please study before attempting, and when you do finally decide to pull the trigger, use very small units until you feel fully comfortable with the process.

Sometimes I don't wager if I'm out with the family or if I know I can't be on my phone or in front of my computer. It's super easy to fudge the calculations, or press the wrong button if you're pressured.

@Froggy80

 Ah. I was goin by the 60.99 percent at the beginning of the thread. Thanks for the breakdown. I really like that spreadsheet that you produced earlier as well. The teams quarters covering ats is highly interesting to me. Looks like you have some extreme deviations from 50% on some teams with not a low number of quarters being played so far. Where may I ask can you get quarters ats records for the season like on your sheet, or did you simply keep track of all of that yourself? 

@Inverted_P3nith

I devised a formula that simulates actual odds based on the score differential during the match. It¡¯s very accurate, and I wouldn¡¯t be surprised if it¡¯s the actual formula used by the books.

@Inverted_P3nith

This is the breakdown:

Live ATS odds for each quarter are dynamically adjusted based on the point difference at the end of each quarter, starting with the pregame 1Q line. Adjustments to the line are made as follows:

•Point Difference > 29.5: Add/Subtract 4.5 points

•24.5 < Point Difference <= 29.5: Add/Subtract 4.0 points

•20.5 < Point Difference <= 24.5: Add/Subtract 3.5 points

•16.5 < Point Difference <= 20.5: Add/Subtract 3.0 points

•12.5 < Point Difference <= 16.5: Add/Subtract 2.5 points

•10.5 < Point Difference <= 12.5: Add/Subtract 2.0 points

•7.5 < Point Difference <= 10.5: Add/Subtract 1.5 points

•4.5 < Point Difference <= 7.5: Add/Subtract 1.0 point

•2.5 < Point Difference <= 4.5: Add/Subtract 0.5 points

•Point Difference <= 2.5: Odds remain equal to the 1Q line.

Adjustments are always made by adding or subtracting points from the 1Q line based on the team leading or trailing.

Wow, thank you. I think I understand. I may use that method to go back and estimate everyone's quarter covering records by each quarter and see if There are any extremely good or bad teams in each quarter. Thanks a lot, homie.

@Inverted_P3nith

Just remember that team momentum changes over time. This is the reason why I use weighted averages in the calculations. Current trends are much more relevant than past trends. Another thing to consider are sidelined players that affect this trend. Imagine key players missing from the lineup and that leads the team to get swept. If that team returns as an opponent in subsequent games, that can lead to a misconceived advantage for your pick. This often leads to unintentional risk.

Today's Picks:

Los Angeles Clippers (system expects odds of ~ +2.0)
Toronto Raptors (system expects odds of ~ +2.5)

Update:

The system is providing one additional pick, but I am not including it and only telling you guys about the reasons why I am leaving them out.

Brooklyn Nets (system expects odds of ~ +3.0)

As mentioned: based on my new set of rules, if there are two or more significant players sidelined, then it nullifies the pick. This is the situation that we're faced with in this particular matchup. So, we are avoiding this pick. In lieu of this, I am putting a small wager on Orlando (full game ATS, not quarters) to keep my attention on the outcome to see if my theory carries weight.

Dennis Schroder <out>
Cam Thomas <out>

BOL Frogster...

I'd be very scared of that Raptors pick as they won 4 quarters in a row......but hey, you're the expert.

LAC covers 1Q.

One more to go.

Congrats to all who tailed. Epic 1Q wins from both picks. 

Record 9 - 0 with Orlando performing well, too.

@Froggy80

 Thank you for the picks!! 

Record: 9 - 0

Clean Sweeps:

Indiana Pacers 

Last night, we successfully avoided a potential landmine. Although Brooklyn was able to eke out a win in the 4Q, it was by a mere 0.5. This means some books may have had worse odds which could've resulted in a clean sweep situation. In my eyes, this was a save. The incorporation of a safeguard against missing players has already shown dividends.

Aside from that, we had a very easy night with 2 first quarter wins. Again, congrats to all who tailed. 

The system doesn't like our odds in any of the matchups today. It's an off-day for me, so hope you guys stay safe and healthy; I'll let you guys know if there's something for Sunday as soon as odds are posted.  

Adding to last night's clean sweep list:

New York Knicks  
Cleveland Cavaliers  

Good morning!

The system is picking Brooklyn Nets for today, but I can't in good conscience put them in as a pick. Remember, Brooklyn almost got swept two days ago. They eked out a win in the 4Q by 0.5 points (which I consider extremely lucky). They are still fresh out of their top scoring player and they have several players still out on their roster. The odds are the same (+7.5) because Dennis Schroder is back, but whether he makes enough of a difference is a toss-up. Meanwhile, Orlando is looking pretty strong. I think Brooklyn will struggle out of the gates, and I don't want to place you guys in the way of danger (even if it's just my personal take).

TL;DR - System pick: Brooklyn Nets +2.5 / I'm not following today due to injuries.

@Froggy80

So what I'M hearing is take Orlando ML each quarter til it hits......LOL.

Thanks for your thread.  :)

GL 

Hey brother? Hope all is well. Anything in the system coming up this week?