As the 2024 Formula 1 season has drawn on, Max Verstappen's grip on the top spot has loosened considerably. It seems unlikely that the field will be able to catch him in the Driver's Standings because of how dominant he started the year, but it could be a sign of parity to come.
The field has tightened so much that Formula 1 odds don't have Verstappen positioned as the betting favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix, a race he's taken in two straight years. Instead, Lando Norris was drawing the shortest odds ahead of qualifying, and that edge continued after Norris claimed the pole position on Saturday.
Let's break down the field and favorites before adding our best F1 picks for the 2024 Italian GP, scheduled for Sunday, September 1.
Italian Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Driver | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Lando Norris |
+110 | -225 |
| Oscar Piastri |
+650 | +450 |
 George Russell |
+1,400 | +850 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.
| Driver | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Charles Leclerc |
+1,400 | +1,400 |
| Carlos Sainz |
+2,200 | +1,800 |
 Max Verstappen |
+225 | +2,200 |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+1,200 | +2,200 |
| Sergio Perez |
+6,500 | +10,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.
| Driver | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Alexander Albon |
+30,000 | +25,000 |
 Fernando Alonso |
+20,000 | +30,000 |
 Nico Hulkenberg |
+30,000 | +40,000 |
| Kevin Magnussen |
+40,000 | +50,000 |
 Daniel Ricciardo |
+30,000 | +50,000 |
| Lance Stroll |
+25,000 | +60,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda |
+30,000 | +60,000 |
 Pierre Gasly |
+40,000 | +70,000 |
| Esteban Ocon |
+40,000 | +70,000 |
| Franco Colapinto |
+50,000 | +70,000 |
 Valtteri Bottas |
+40,000 | +80,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou |
+50,000 | +80,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.
Italian Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
And here we are. The gap has been closing between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris on the odds board and now the latter has the shortest odds to win a race before qualifying even happens.
Verstappen still owns a healthy lead in the F1 standings thanks to seven wins, but that is weighted heavily on the earlier portion of the calendar. Verstappen hasn't won any of his last five races, marking his longest winless stretch since 2020. He has only two podium finishes in those events since winning the Spanish GP in late June.
Norris is fresh off a victory at the Dutch GP, which marked his second checkered flag of the season (which also helps account for why he hasn't caught up further to Verstappen).
McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is the other driver drawing odds shorter than 10/1. Piastri won the Hungarian GP earlier this year and has finished fourth or better in five consecutive events. He finished 12th at the Italian GP in 2023, which was his first time in the field.
Italian Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks
Race prediction: Lando Norris to win (-200 at BetRivers)
Lando Norris is fresh off the second win of his career and on the still very alive season. He now finds himself just 70 points behind Max Verstappen in the Drivers' standings, with a very realistic chance to cut deeply into that deficit this weekend.
Although Norris may sport a mixed bag of results in Italy, including eighth (2023) and seventh (2022) place finishes his last two times out, he also secured his first-ever second-place finish back in 2021.
Norris also hasn't let questionable track history get in his way before, seeing as he is fresh off of a Dutch Grand Prix win after having previously never placed better than seventh there.
George Russell to win (+1,000 at FanDuel)
If there is one driver to back at their post-qualification odds not named Lando Norris, it has to be George Russell.
Russell lacks consistency and has extremely high variance in his results, but his ceiling is unignorable. He surprised everyone with his win at the Austrian Grand Prix and then followed that up with an early retirement and eighth-place dud.
He then crossed the finish line first in Belgium but was disqualified after the race. After the traditional summer break, many were eager to see how Russell would perform, but he came out with a disappointing seventh-place finish.
But as long as Russell continues to show that he is a threat at least every other week, he is worth backing at odds these high.
Total classified drivers Under 17.5 (+300 at FanDuel)
The Italian Grand Prix is quietly a race that takes a lot of victims. Working backwards: there were 16 classified drivers in 2022, 15 in 2021, 16 in 2020, 19 in 2019 (finally an Over!), 16 in 2018, and 18 in 2017 and 2016.
The Over on this prop has hit only twice in the last eight years, and in all but one instance, the Under was covered by multiple drivers.
Italian Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris |
2 | Oscar Piastri |
| 3 | George Russell |
4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | Carlos Sainz |
6 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 7 | Max Verstappen |
8 | Sergio Perez |
| 9 | Alexander Albon |
10 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 11 | Fernando Alonso |
12 | Daniel Ricciardo |
| 13 | Kevin Magnussen |
14 | Pierre Gasly |
| 15 | Esteban Ocon |
16 | Yuki Tsunoda |
| 17 | Lance Stroll |
18 | Franco Colapinto |
| 19 | Valtteri Bottas |
20 | Guanyu Zhou |
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Previous Italian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren |
| 2020 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri |
| 2019 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
