The Sao Paulo Grand Prix is off to a slippery start, with Saturday's qualifying being postponed after heavy rain came down. Qualifying will run early Sunday morning instead, but there is still plenty of value to extract ahead of the November 3 race at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace.
A driver from McLaren or Ferrari has found the winner's circle in each of the last six Formula 1 races. Will that continue or will a former Sao Paulo GP winner like Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, or George Russell claim the checkered flag?
Let's look at the latest F1 odds for the 2024 Sao Paulo GP.
Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Player/Team | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Lando Norris |
+250 | TBD |
 Charles Leclerc |
+250 | TBD |
| Carlos Sainz |
+400 | TBD |
 Max Verstappen |
+400 | TBD |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-02.
| Name | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Piastri |
+1,000 | TBD |
 Lewis Hamilton |
+1,800 | TBD |
| George Russell |
+2,000 | TBD |
| Sergio Perez |
+6,500 | TBD |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-02.
| Name | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Nico Hulkenberg |
+25,000 | TBD |
| Kevin Magnussen |
+25,000 | TBD |
 Fernando Alonso |
+25,000 | TBD |
 Yuki Tsunoda |
+30,000 | TBD |
 Alexander Albon |
+30,000 | TBD |
| Franco Colapinto |
+30,000 | TBD |
| Liam Lawson |
+40,000 | TBD |
| Lance Stroll |
+40,000 | TBD |
 Esteban Ocon |
+50,000 | TBD |
| Pierre Gasly |
+50,000 | TBD |
 Valtteri Bottas |
+70,000 | TBD |
| Guanyu Zhou |
+70,000 | TBD |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-02.
Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
The top of the odds board is as tightly contested as we've seen all year with three drivers — Lando Norris, Carlos Sainz, and Charles Leclerc — being listed with odds between +200 and +300 to win the 2024 Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
Those three have taken turns winning the last three events on the schedule, so their recent form is possibly influencing their standing. Still, these odds reflect the genuine uncertainty and unpredictability from week to week, which is a far cry from Max Verstappen's or Lewis Hamilton's stranglehold atop F1 in recent years.
Speaking of Verstappen, he won last year's race (which he did at most events in 2023, to be fair), and is fourth on the odds board at +650. And while he hasn't won any of the last 10 races, he still appears set to claim the F1 Driver's Championship since none of his peers has consistently won or topped him. Despite the relative drought, Verstappen has still reached the podium four times in six races and has finished no worse than sixth.
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Sao Paulo Grand Prix picks and predictions
Race prediction: Lando Norris to win (-150 at bet365)
After a mid-season stretch that saw Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri win four of six races, many thought that on top of winning the Constructors' Championship, Norris could catch Max Verstappen in the Drivers' Championship.
Norris took home Saturday's sprint race, only passing teammate Piastri due to team orders in order to give Piastri the best chance to catch Verstappen in the standings.
The point remains that the two cars and drivers were well ahead of the rest of the pack — a whole 5.6 seconds better than Charles LeClerc (third). Norris also had a solid showing here last year, climbing from sixth position to a runner-up finish.
Oscar Piastri fastest qualifier (+430 at FanDuel)
These odds are far too long for a car that handily "won" Saturday's sprint race before team orders came in to let teammate Norris ahead.
While Piastri is coming fresh off of an eighth-place finish that is disappointing by the standards he has set this season, he did get there from a starting position of 17th.
He obviously is a much more capable driver this year, and on top of that, the McLaren engineering team has been the grid's best this season.
Qualified drivers Under 17.5 (+115 at FanDuel)
Given the conditions on Saturday, there is a very real chance that we see a lot fewer drivers cross the finish line than usual.
Tomorrow's weather includes a likelihood of rain (70-80%), meaning less than ideal track conditions for a race that poses plenty at stake in the standings.
Last year's Sao Paulo Grand Prix saw similar issues with the weather, and only 14 drivers qualified. Considering Saturday's elements, this year's weather could be even worse.
Previous Sao Paulo Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | George Russell | Mercedes |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2019 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
*The race was not held in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
