Formula 1 is returning to the Shanghai International Circuit for the first time since 2019 with Max Verstappen and Red Bull looking to build upon 2+ years of dominance.
The reigning Drivers' Champion has won three of four races to start the new season and is a heavy favorite in the Formula 1 odds to win the Chinese Grand Prix for the first time.
With qualifying in the books, we break down his chances in our full F1 Chinese Grand Prix below.
Chinese Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Driver | Team |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | -1,100 | -1,000 | -1,200 |
| Sergio Perez | Red Bull | +850 | +900 | +800 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +2,200 | +3,300 | +2,500 |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +3,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | +4,000 | +4,000 | +4,000 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | +4,500 | +3,300 | +5,000 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +9,000 | +10,000 | +8,000 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | +15,000 | +15,000 | +15,000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | +25,000 | +25,000 | +30,000 |
| Niko Hulkenburg | Haas | +35,000 | +50,000 | +75,000 |
Odds as of 4-20.
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Chinese Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks
Max Verstappen to win (-835 at BetRivers)
One would think that there wouldn't be many challenges left for Max Verstappen, now a winner of 31 of his last 36 races, but the Chinese Grand Prix this weekend presented a unique challenge in that it was a race he had not won in his career.
But after winning Saturday's sprint race while also securing pole position for Sunday's race, it became clear that any prior unfamiliarity and relative lack of experience was a non-factor regarding Verstappen's dominance.
Lando Norris to podium (+300 at BetMGM)
A mainstay of these Formula One picks and predictions articles is the Lando Norris podium prop, and this weekend will be no different. Norris opened at +250 prior to qualification, and yet after securing P4, he is now at +300 to climb just one position in Sunday's race.
Mind you, this is for a driver who has hit the podium in eight of his last 17 races (a 47% clip), and a driver who is best known at this point for his steadiness and consistency. To that point, he has finished at a worse position compared to his starting position just five times across his 18 races.
And with the Chinese Grand Prix being a race that has been on the schedule since 2019, Sunday's race brings an uncommon level playing field that lends its hand towards drivers like Norris. It's easy to forget that towards the final months of last season, Norris often found himself at even money on this prop. When adding in that context, it's hard to argue against this prop providing a wealth of value.
Chinese Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | 2 | Sergio Pere |
| 3 | Fernando Alonso | 4 | Lando Norris |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri | 6 | Charles LeClerc |
| 7 | Carlos Sainz | 8 | George Russell |
| 9 | Nico Hulkenberg | 10 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 11 | Lance Stroll | 12 | Daniel Ricciardo |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon | 14 | Alexander Albon |
| 15 | Pierre Gasly | 16 | Zhou Guanyu |
| 17 | Kevin Magnussen | 18 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 19 | Yuki Tsunoda | 20 | Logan Sargeant |
Chinese Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
Max Verstappen (-450)
There's nothing to say about Max Verstappen's dominance that hasn't already been said. He's a DNF away from having four wins in four races this season, with those three victories coming by 12, 13, and 22 seconds.
He's yet to win here in Shanghai but is a massive -450 favorite to change that this week.
Sergio Perez (+1,000)
In the three noted Verstappen victories, Sergio Perez was the next driver across the finish line.
Those three runner-up finishes and a fifth-place finish in Australia have him second in the Drivers', just as he is on this week's odds board.
Charles Leclerc (+1,200)
Despite not having any victories in 2024 and being the wrong Ferrari to win in Australia, Leclerc has finished fourth or better in all four races this season.
Among those results is a runner-up behind Sainz in Melbourne and a third-place finish at Jeddah. He's third in the standings as a result.
Odds as of 4-15.
Chinese Grand Prix opening odds reaction
Max Verstappen to win (-450 at DraftKings)
This weekend's race gives us some of the closest direct insight into how Max Verstappen is priced in a vacuum, seeing as the Chinese Grand Prix has not been held since 2019 — a time before Verstappen's dominant stretch of winning.
That's not to say he has zero history here as he placed fourth in 2019 and fifth in 2018, but those were on the lower end of some of his finishes as he placed worse in just 12 of the other 40 races across those two years.
In terms of recent form, he's coming off of a win in Japan, his third win in four races this year. And of course, he was the heavy favorite to win the Australian Grand Prix before he had to exit due to an early retirement.
Verstappen is likely deserving of these odds despite his history here, but there's simply no value to extract by betting on him beforehand. The best bet here is to take him if he by chance were to have a poor qualifying performance.
Lean: Stay away.
Sergio Perez to win (+1,500 at FanDuel)
Sergio Perez's season has essentially mirrored Verstappens, finishing as the runner-up in Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain behind Verstappen while experiencing some turbulence in Australia (fifth-place finish).
However, he actually had a really encouraging showing in Japan despite it being just another second-place finish. In qualification, he finished just a tenth of a second behind Verstappen, securing his first front-row qualification result in over 20 races.
He went on to finish 12 seconds behind Verstappen and it's possible to assume that if he wanted to, he could have put a little more pressure on Max but with Ferrari flanking him, there was no reason to risk disaster.
Lean: Bet prior to qualification.
Lando Norris to podium (+250 at bet365)
This prop has been our bread and butter for nearly eight months now, spanning back to the final third of last season.
Lando Norris has been a great buy-low following any race in which he finishes lower than his starting position or doesn't podium, and he happens to be coming off a race in which he did both, taking fifth after finishing third in qualifying at Japan.
In terms of podium performance, he has just one this year (Australia), but he's done so in eight of his last 17 races (47%). And of course, Norris' trademark has been his resiliency and consistency, having finished in a worse position than his starting position in just five of his last 18 races.
Now granted, Norris doesn't have much history at the Chinese Grand Prix as his only race there was his third F1 race ever, but lack of experience and results are a commonality for the entire grid outside of drivers like Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso.
If Norris finishes even inside the Top 4 in qualifying, we'll see these odds get cut in half.
Lean: Bet prior to qualification.
Previous Chinese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | No event: COVID-19 related. | |
| 2022 | No event: COVID-19 related. | |
| 2021 | No event: COVID-19 related. | |
| 2020 | No event: COVID-19 related. | |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2014 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2013 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari |
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Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
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