UFC 309: Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Odds, Picks & Predictions

The second meeting between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler goes Saturday at UFC 309 and Rohit Ponnaiya believes the result will be much like the first — a knockout win by Oliveira.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya ? Betting Analyst
Nov 16, 2024 ? 08:27 ET ? 4 min read
Charles Oliveira UFC
Photo By - Imagn Images. Charles Oliveira raises his hands after a victory.

Charles Oliveira faces off against Michael Chandler in the co-main event for UFC 309 betting this Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York. These two fought for the vacant lightweight championship in 2021 with Oliveira winning in a thriller.

UFC odds have Oliveira as a -270 favorite for the rematch and I'm betting on Do Bronx to beat Chandler again. Here are my best free Oliveira vs. Chandler 2 predictions for Saturday, November 16.

Oliveira vs Chandler prediction and pick

Fight analysis

When these two previously fought, Oliveira knocked out Chandler in the second round after a back-and-forth opening frame. Since that victory, Oliveira has gone 3-2 with stoppage wins against Top 5 lightweights Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Beneil Dariush and losses to current champ Islam Makhachev and No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan. 

Since that loss to Oliveira, Chandler has gone 1-2 and he hasn't fought in two years since he was waiting for a payday against Connor McGregor that never materialized. His only win during that span came against a washed-up Tony Ferguson in 2022.

While he knocked out Ferguson with a highlight-reel front kick in the second round, he ate heavy shots in the first round which isn't a great sign with the dangerous Oliveira on deck. 

Chandler still hits hard and has a good wrestling base but he's very hittable and Oliveira has more weapons and far better grappling ability. When you also factor in Chandler's lengthy layoff and his low fight IQ, Oliveira should win again

Best best analysis

Chandler is an aggressive fighter and he has a tendency to go out on his shield, with five of his last six defeats coming inside the distance. He's also 38 years old and has absorbed plenty of damage in his career so his durability isn't what it used to be.

Meanwhile, Oliveira holds the UFC record for submission wins (16) and most finishes (20). An incredible 14 of Oliveira's last 15 wins have come by way of stoppage with 10 of them ending before the midway point of Round 2.

Oliveira's moneyline price is a tad steep at -270 but we can chop that number down to -190 if we back him to win inside the distance once again.

Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler odds

Bet99
Method of Victory Oliveira Chandler
To win outright -245 +200
To win by KO/TKO +225 +390
To win by decision +950 +1200
To win by submission +145 +975
Draw +2500 +2500

Odds as of 11-16.

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Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler tale of the tape

Oliveira   Chandler
35 Age 38
5-foot-10 Height 5-foot-8
155 lbs Weight 71 inches
74 inches Reach 156 lbs
34-10 (10 KO) Record 23-8 (11 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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