US Open Preview and Picks: Osaka to Bounce Back?

US Open betting takes center court in the tennis world this week.

Novak Djokovic aims to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win all four majors in a calendar year, and his only obstacle would appear to be a shoulder injury he picked up at the Olympics.

World No.1 Ashleigh Barty leads the ladies’ field and looks set to be the most consistent No.1 since Serena Williams — she’s already won five titles across three surfaces this year.

Covers Experts' Tennis Insiders has your complete breakdown of US Open tennis betting. We'll look at the favorites, underdogs, and live long shots in both draws in our US Open picks and predictions.      

US Open conditions

Last year’s event saw a marked difference in court speed & bounce. Conditions were much quicker and lower-bouncing compared to previous seasons, however the court speed is often changed at Flushing Meadows. Keep an eye on the qualifying event (August 24th -27th) to get a feel for the conditions.

Important Note: Show courts (i.e., Center Court) can often play slower than the outside courts, while hard courts can speed up during a tournament as matches are played on them.

US Open men’s picks

Favorite: Novak Djokovic (-150)

The greatest hard-court player of all time, he looked set to cruise to a 4th title in Flushing Meadows last year before accidentally hitting a linesperson with a ball and being subsequently defaulted. He loved the faster conditions in New York last year, which really displayed his immense ability to absorb pace and counterpunch.

He appeared in cruise control in Tokyo after sailing through four rounds without dropping a set and led Alexander Zverev 6-1/3-2 before only winning one more game, followed by a defeat in the bronze medal match against Carreno Busta, then withdrawing from his bronze medal mixed doubles match with a shoulder injury. 

He’ll make his return in New York, but at this price, it’s worth waiting to see his performances in the early rounds before making a futures play.

Underdog to Watch: Daniil Medvedev (+400)

Medvedev’s the second-best hard-court player in the world right now, he added a fourth Masters 1000 title to the collection in Cincinnati, and barring Djokovic, few players can beat the Russian on hard courts. 

Medvedev’s style is incredibly difficult to play against, as he has huge wingspan for retrieving balls. Despite sitting deep behind the baseline, his flat groundstrokes stay low and are difficult to attack.

Heat and humidity can be tricky for him to handle: he faded in Tokyo and has suffered from cramping in New York and Miami. If he overcomes those physical hurdles, another finals appearance is likely.

Live Longshot: Matteo Berrettini (+1,000)

The 2019 US Open was Berrettini’s breakout major, reaching the semi-finals, and his career has continued to progress. A Wimbledon finalist this year, his game is very effective on hard court, and his one-two punch of serve and forehand is extremely difficult to breakdown. 

His weaker backhand wing has improved thanks to a penetrating slice that zips through the court and stays low. He’s a Top-8 seed once again and will be a very difficult opponent to face in the second week.

US Open women’s picks

Favorite: Ashleigh Barty (+400)

Barty’s return to the tour has been immense. She didn’t play when the tour resumed in 2020 but she’s a phenomenal 38-8 in 2021, winning her second major at Wimbledon and adding two Masters 1000 titles to her resume, the latest coming in Cincinnati last week.

Her tennis IQ and arsenal of shots are a hard combination to counter, her serve is extremely effective for a player of her height, and she can adapt her game to every surface.

She’s an incredible 14-1 versus Top-20 players in 2021, and a dream finals matchup versus Naomi Osaka is a possibility given their seeding.

Underdog to Watch: Naomi Osaka (+500)

Osaka’s suffered a tumultuous number of months, having withdrawn from the French Open due to media pressures, while also missing Wimbledon and losing in the second round of the Olympics. Her recent appearance in Cincinnati featured mixed results, rallying from behind to beat Cori Gauff before an error-strewn performance in the next round. 

Hard courts are without doubt her best surface, having won all four of her majors in New York & Melbourne. She’s very much a rhythm player, so I’d recommend waiting to see if she emerges from the opening rounds unscathed. If she clicks into rhythm, she could quickly become the favorite for the title.

Live Long Shot: Belinda Bencic (+2,500)

A gold medalist in Tokyo, Bencic loves hard courts and lost a narrow semifinal to eventual champion Bianca Andreescu at Flushing Meadows in 2019.

Bencic’s counter-punching style is very effective on hard courts, her return of serve and defense are excellent, while her serve/forehand have improved in recent seasons.

Quarterfinalist in Cincinnati, she’s carried her Tokyo form into the US hard-court swing, and with a Top-16 seeding, she’ll be a very dangerous player in this draw.

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