World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz is the overwhelming favorite to reach his third consecutive major final and vie for the chance to win his first Olympic Gold Medal.
Meanwhile, Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime has seen a return to form and would like nothing better than to end a personal, three-match losing streak to his 21-year-old opponent.
Join me as I break this semifinal matchup down with my Auger-Aliassime vs. Alcaraz predictions and free picks for Friday, August 2.
Auger-Aliassime vs Alcaraz prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Alcaraz moneyline (-650) - My best bet
Alcaraz to win & Over 20.5 games (+130)
Match analysis
Carlos Alcaraz has reached the semis in each of his last three attempts and is now an overwhelming favorite to defeat Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Alcaraz and Aliassime have met six times in total and twice already this year. Although the career head-to-head is tied at 3-3, Alcaraz has tuned FAA up in straight sets in each of their last three, including in this year's Round of 16 at the French Open.
The Spanish No. 1 has used incredible speed and touch to easily dispatch Auger-Aliassime in the past. Alcaraz takes him sideline to sideline and exposes the Canadians' sub-par lateral movement, and then usually finishes FAA off with a drop shot.
Auger-Aliassime and his serve have been tough for opponents during this past week, but he doesn’t have the weapons to beat a player like Alcaraz on clay. Alcaraz has too big a game, and while he always has a yip or two along the way, those mistakes won’t prevent him from losing to Auger-Aliassime on Friday.
Best best analysis
As great as Alcaraz has been, this version of Auger-Aliassime is the best one he’s faced yet. FAA went an impressive 13-6 during the Euro clay court season, including a semi in Madrid.
The 23-year-old Canadian has seen his serve average 10 aces a match across his past four matches, successful on 87% of his first service points with a 63%-win rate on his second offering.
The courts are playing lightning-fast and FAA has been broken only once this week. If the youngster can serve on Friday like he has all Olympics, he can drag a fatigued Alcaraz into a breaker or two, and maybe even win a set.
Auger-Aliassime vs Alcaraz odds
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| +425 | Moneyline | -650 |
| +4.5 (-110) | Game spread | -4.5 (-110) |
| Over 21.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-140) |
Odds as of 8-1.
Not intended for use in MA.
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