Daniil Medvedev’s domination on hardcourt continues, as Friday marks his fourth major semifinal on hardcourt and 11 of his 12 career ATP titles have come on this surface.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has slowly put his game together throughout the summer but this will be his toughest test so far as the 21-year-old Canadian enters his first major semifinal.
Tennis Insiders breaks down this Daniil Medvedev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime match with our US Open men’s semifinal picks.
Daniil Medvedev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime odds
| (2) Daniil Medvedev | (12) Felix Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| -600 | Moneyline | +400 |
| -5.5 (-150) | Match Handicap (Games) | +5.5 (+110) |
| 4.5 (Over +120/Under -163) | Total Breaks of Serve | 1.5 (Over -120/Under -120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of September 8, 2021
US Open men's semifinal betting preview
Daniil Medvedev betting breakdown
A finalist at this event in 2019 and semi-finalist in 2020, it’s clear that Flushing Meadows will be a happy hunting ground for the remainder of Medvedev’s career.
Hardcourts are without doubt his strongest surface: they suit his flat ball-striking and extremely underrated serve, while his deep return position prevents opponents from winning cheap points on their serve.
The neutral aspect of hard courts (which usually play with a medium speed and bounce) naturally fit Medvedev’s game. Unlike clay, which requires heavier topspin, or grass, which requires players to be more aggressive, Medvedev can sit deep and grind down opponents, while also using his huge serve to great effect.
Felix Auger-Aliassime betting breakdown
Many questions were asked of Aliassime after a 4-6 clay-court swing, widely regarded as his strongest surface. He’s slowly grown in confidence, reaching his first major quarterfinal at Wimbledon, and the strong form continued onto the hardcourts, where he was a quarterfinalist in Cincinnati and he’s now reached his first Grand Slam semifinal.
His serve and forehand are huge weapons, while his movement and footwork are also immense. His game, in general, has tremendous upside but judging how good he could be is tricky — his groundstrokes are extremely ‘wristy,’ so timing and reproducing his game over a consistent period will be difficult.
However, when he does play at a peak level he is extremely tough to beat.
US Open men's semifinal matchup preview
Everyone (except Novak Djokovic) is a good matchup for Medvedev right now.
Previously, counter-punchers have been smaller in stature, lacking the big serve and groundstrokes to win cheap points — but Medvedev is 6-foot-6’, has elite athleticism, and an enormous serve.
Simply put, he’s a new breed of counter-puncher.
Aliassime is going to have problems winning cheap points given Medvedev’s deep return position, so the baseline battle will be interesting.
Medvedev’s flat backhand that zips through and stays low will test Aliassime’s timing, and we could see a plethora of unforced errors if he’s uncomfortable.
US Open men's semifinal pick
- Over 5.5 Breaks of Serve (-138)
