No shocks on this side of the US Open draw as the No. 1 and No. 4 seeds collide for a 10th career meeting in the semifinals at Flushing Meadows.
Novak Djokovic leads the head-to-head matchup 6-3 against Alexander Zverev, and although the German's game has shown signs of growth in recent months, questions still remain around his ability to perform in high-pressure situations.
Tennis Insiders breaks down this Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev match with our US Open betting preview for the second men’s semifinal.
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev odds
| (1) Novak Djokovic | (4) Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | Moneyline | +200 |
| -4.5 (-120) | Match Handicap (Games) | +4.5 (-120) |
| 3.5 (Over -150/Under +110) | Total Breaks of Serve | 2.5 (Over -110/Under -125) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of September 9, 2021
US Open men's semifinal betting preview
Novak Djokovic betting breakdown
Djokovic is thriving in these conditions, which isn't a surprise as the greatest returner/counter-puncher the game has ever seen is playing on his favorite surface. All those skills were on display in his quarterfinal, dismissing Mario Berrettini in comfortable fashion after losing a tight first set.
While it’s been a relatively cozy path to the semifinals, Djokovic has yet to find his highest gear — he’s dropped the opening set in three consecutive matches before storming back and taking control.
Alexander Zverev betting breakdown
Zverev developed a habit of making majors very difficult for himself, with long five-set matches in early rounds and meltdowns when leading on the scoreboard.
However, he’s shown maturity in the past 12 months, putting away opponents in a much more straightforward fashion. His problems with the second serve under pressure still remain, as he has a tendency to decelerate when feeling tension — often leading to double faults in key moments.
US Open men's semifinal matchup preview
As mentioned above, Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-3 — but Zverev’s victory in the Olympics comes with an asterisk, considering Djokovic suffered a shoulder injury when he was leading the match 6-1/3-2... before winning only one more game.
Zverev’s mentality will be fascinating: will he have issues with the deceleration on his second serve and forehand with the pressure — or does he see this match as nothing to lose considering the level of opponent he’s facing?
Djokovic out-aced Zverev at the Australian Open — another example of how he’s adapting his game as his career advances, making an additional effort to win cheap points off his underrated serve. Both are excellent returners, but Djokovic is better: His block/low-pace returns in Melbourne were very effective as they forced Zverev to generate his own pace off his weaker forehand wing.
For Zverev to have any chance he needs to serve brilliantly *under pressure* as he can execute his game extremely well against the vast majority of opponents. It’s in the crucial points where he’s faltered on the biggest stage — losing from a 2-0 lead against Dominic Thiem in last year’s final could leave scar tissue.
US Open men's semifinal pick
- Over 6.5 Breaks of Serve in Match (+110)
