Australian Open 2022 Preview and Picks: Can Osaka Get Third Crown Down Under?

After the most controversial lead-up to a major in history, Novak Djokovic will not be taking part in the Australian Open, giving Daniil Medvedev the solo favorite status in our Australian Open odds. 

The women’s draw is extremely open with a talented field headed by Ashleigh Barty as she aims to become the first Australian woman to win the event since Chris O’Neill in 1978.

Tennis Insiders break down the men's and women's draws with a favorite, underdog to watch, and live longshot.

Australian Open conditions

The outside courts are playing medium (close to medium-fast) and the show courts will always play a little bit slower for larger audiences. 

The balls are reported to be ‘lively,’ so bouncing higher and ‘fluffing up’ quickly. This means that towards the end of each nine-game ball cycle, they will slow down faster than usual.

Australian Open men’s picks

Favorite: Daniil Medvedev (+140)

Medvedev reached the finals in Melbourne last year and hard courts are his happy hunting ground. Clay will always be difficult with his flat groundstrokes, and he has work ahead of him to adapt to the nuances of grass courts.

Finalist in New York and Melbourne before winning his first major crown at the third attempt, he denied Djokovic the calendar slam in emphatic fashion. 

Medvedev’s serve is extremely effective, he moves brilliantly despite his long frame, his ability to sit deep behind the baseline and hit flat returns like groundstrokes nullify opponents' serves.

Underdog to watch: Alexander Zverev (+240)

Olympic gold medal, five masters 1000 titles and two end-of-year ATP Finals titles, the next step now is for Alexander Zverev to win his first major. Zverev thrives on hard courts, his serve is huge, and his return of serve/defense are at their strongest on hard courts.

Despite his seeding, he’s been handed a tricky draw, Shapovalov, Hurkacz, Karatsev and Nadal are all in the same quarter of his draw, all four reached the semi-finals or better in a major last year. 

His major record is blighted by a series of close defeats, last year he lost in four sets to Djokovic in Melbourne, lost in five to Tsitsipas at the French Open, lost in five to Aliassime in Wimbledon and lost another five-setter to Djokovic in New York, however an issue with double faults and decelerating on the forehand in clutch moments seems to have improved since he won the gold medal in Tokyo. 

If he does reach the final, a meeting with Medvedev is likely, he won’t have the luxury of altitude that he had when he beat him in the ATP Tour Finals, his forehand can be exposed in this matchup in slower conditions, the Russian presents a huge obstacle in his quest for a first major crown.

Live longshot: Denis Shapovalov (+6,600)

Shapovalov changed his coaching team during the off-season and it’s already beginning to pay dividends. He delivered a fantastic performance in the ATP Cup Final and these lively conditions are perfect for his game.

Shapovalov’s style is all about rhythm. He can lack the patience for point construction and defense, but these courts will be very receptive to his game. With all his ups and downs, it can be easy to forget he was a US Open quarterfinalist in 2020 and a Wimbledon semi-finalist in 2021.

Australian Open women’s picks

Favorite: Ashleigh Barty (+300)

World No.1, two majors under her belt, and a style of play that is unique to the tour, Ashleigh Barty is the deserving favorite. Her serve is extremely accurate for a player of her height, and the variety she possesses is very difficult for opponents to handle.

She recorded commanding victories in the two Masters 1000 hard court events she participated in last year, and she’s continued that fine form with a title in Adelaide, beating Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and Elena Rybakina in the process. It will be a huge shock if she doesn’t go deep at this event.

Underdog to watch: Naomi Osaka (+650)

Naomi Osaka returns to Melbourne seeking a third title down under and a fifth major in total. Hard courts suit her movement and aggressive ball striking, and when her serve and groundstrokes click into a rhythm on this surface, she is almost unstoppable.

The majority will be hoping Barty and Osaka cross paths in a fascinating battle of placement and variety vs. unrelenting power.

Osaka reeled off three victories before withdrawing with an abdominal strain before her semi-final in Melbourne last week. However, this is purely precautionary, and she’ll be more than happy to have three matches under her belt ahead of the Open.

Live longshot: Belinda Bencic (+6,600)

This is a sizeable price on a player who continues to develop and absolutely loves playing on hard courts. An Olympic gold medalist in Tokyo, four of her five titles have come on hard courts while her best results in majors have been in New York as a semi-finalist and quarterfinalist in her past two visits.

She’s an elite counterpuncher who has worked on her weaknesses in recent seasons (particularly her serve) her backhand and defense are rock solid, and she has the potential to go deep in the second week.

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