Dallas Cowboys

Picks

Lamb is starting to build chemistry with Cooper Rush and had six catches for 93 yards in Week 14 before snagging nine of 13 targets for 116 yards last week. The All-Pro WR will be able to gain separation against a Bucs team that is 30th in the league in dropback success rate. Especially with Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr. sidelined. The Bucs were routinely getting burned by No. 1 WRs earlier in the season and have been fortunate not to face any top wideouts since the start of November. The best wide receivers they've seen since then have been DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Malik Nabers, and three of those wideouts had more than 80 yards.

Mayfield has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in nine of his 14 games this season. Two of those one-TD games came in Weeks 2 and 3, while the other three outliers are now a few weeks away. The veteran quarterback is fresh off a four-touchdown game in which he racked up 288 passing yards in Los Angeles. In fact, he’s now thrown for seven touchdowns and nearly 600 yards in the last two weeks.The Dallas Cowboys have been able to hold guys like Bryce Young and Drew Lock to Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns in recent weeks while allowing Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow all to find the end zone multiple times.

Dowdle has rumbled for more than 110 yards in three-straight games. That said, those contests came against Giants, Bengals, and Panthers. The Panthers are last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (173) and the Giants are second-last (143.7), while the Bengals are 30th in defensive rush EPA. It will be a big step up to go from those run defenses to a Tampa Bay stop unit that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA. The Bucs are allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs — the seventh-lowest number in the league. The Bucs also have an average scoring margin of +15.8 ppg in their eight wins so there's a chance they get up big early and force Dallas to abandon the run.

The Cowboys have scored 27+ points in three of their last four games with Cooper Rush at the helm. Granted, those games came against some terrible defenses but the Bucs aren't much better ranking 29th in the league in defensive success rate. Rico Dowdle has rushed for 119.5 yards per game over the last four weeks and CeeDee Lamb should torch a secondary that is 30th in defensive dropback success rate and will be missing star safety Antoine Winfield Jr.  But the main reason I like the Over in this game is because Tampa Bay should move the ball at will. The Bucs have averaged 30.8 ppg since Week 4 and their balanced offense is seventh in dropback EPA and sixth in rush EPA. The Cowboys are 26th in defensive EPA and 32nd in defensive rush EPA. They also recently lost LB DeMarvion Overshown and top CB Trevon Diggs to season-ending injuries.

With so many other stars on this offense, Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan is being overlooked. But the third-round pick is running the furthest routes of all Tampa receivers and has cemented himself as the No. 2 receiver in this offense. He has 134 yards and three TDs over his last two games and has set season/career-highs in yardage in consecutive weeks. There might be even more room for targets this week as the Bucs have some injuries. Otton was a DNP at practice on Thursday, and he had 17 targets over the last four games. Trey Palmer was also a DNP this week with an illness, and Sterling Shepard is nursing a foot injury. Fellow rookie Bucky Irving has also been limited this week. There could potentially be an extra 10 targets available Sunday when you add in the increased pass rate that an indoor game also brings.

Lamb has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games coming into Sunday night football and this showdown stinks like a shootout. Lamb’s 17 red zone targets are the eighth most among WRs but he doesn’t have to be inside the 20 to score. Tampa has allowed a ton of home run balls as well – that’s compounded by a slew of injuries at the safety position. 

Tampa Bay has trouble slowing down the passing game and has allowed 44 receptions of 20+ yards, including seven for 40+. Luckily, the Bucs can counter those shortcomings with yardage of their own. The Buccaneers have broken out for big scores during this winning streak, averaging 31 points per game. Tampa Bay has a downfield threat with Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans, which works well against the aggressive zone schemes of Cowboys coordinator Mike Zimmer but can really stick it to the Dallas defense with standout rookie RB Bucky Irving and shifty back Rashaad White. Dallas ranks as the worst run-stop unit in the NFL, sitting dead last in EPA allowed per handoff, 26th in opponent success rate per run, and 28th in yards allowed per carry.