Atlanta Falcons

2nd in NFC South (7 - 7 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Dec 22 13:00 ET

Player Props

Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Kyle Pitts Receptions Made Props ? Atlanta

K. Pitts
tight end TE ? Atlanta
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.3
Best Odds
Over
+100

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This week, Kyle Pitts is projected by the projections to find himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.2 targets. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (92.9%) versus TEs this year (92.9%). The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Kyle Pitts

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.3

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This week, Kyle Pitts is projected by the projections to find himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.2 targets. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (92.9%) versus TEs this year (92.9%). The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Malik Nabers Receptions Made Props ? N.Y. Giants

M. Nabers
wide receiver WR ? N.Y. Giants
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.8
Best Odds
Over
-115

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Giants offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.85 seconds per snap. This year, the deficient Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up a whopping 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

Malik Nabers

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.8
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.8

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Giants offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.85 seconds per snap. This year, the deficient Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up a whopping 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Drake London Receptions Made Props ? Atlanta

D. London
wide receiver WR ? Atlanta
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-145

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to notch 8.2 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs. Drake London's 28.5% Target% this year signifies a remarkable progression in his passing attack workload over last year's 23.3% rate. Drake London's 5.6 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a substantial progression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.3 figure.

Drake London

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.6
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.6

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to notch 8.2 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs. Drake London's 28.5% Target% this year signifies a remarkable progression in his passing attack workload over last year's 23.3% rate. Drake London's 5.6 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a substantial progression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.3 figure.

All Matchup props

Daniel Bellinger Receptions Made Props ? N.Y. Giants

D. Bellinger
tight end TE ? N.Y. Giants
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.6
Best Odds
Over
+125

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Giants offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.85 seconds per snap. Daniel Bellinger's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 89.4% to 100.0%.

Daniel Bellinger

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.6
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.6

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Giants offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.85 seconds per snap. Daniel Bellinger's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 89.4% to 100.0%.

All Matchup props

Bijan Robinson Receptions Made Props ? Atlanta

B. Robinson
running back RB ? Atlanta
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.3
Best Odds
Over
-156

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 64.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 4.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs. Bijan Robinson profiles as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.

Bijan Robinson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.3

The Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 64.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 4.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs. Bijan Robinson profiles as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.

All Matchup props

Tyrone Tracy Receptions Made Props ? N.Y. Giants

T. Tracy
running back RB ? N.Y. Giants
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Over
-147

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Giants offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.85 seconds per snap. The Falcons pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.7%) to RBs this year (87.7%).

Tyrone Tracy

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

The New York Giants may lean on the pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Drew Lock. This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Giants offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.85 seconds per snap. The Falcons pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.7%) to RBs this year (87.7%).

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV
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