Atlanta Falcons

Picks

The Atlanta Falcons are one of the bigger favorites this Sunday, coming in as 8.5-point favorites despite giving a first start to Michael Penix Jr at QB. The untested rookie quarterback has a lot to prove, but it’s too early to start projecting massive upticks to the likes of Drake London. When it comes to this offense, we know Bijan Robinson is the star. The former Texas man is having a strong season with nine touchdowns on the year, including four in the past five games, a spell that’s seen him with 20+ carries on four occasions and over 100 scrimmage yards on four occasions, too. He’s most likely to open the scoring in this one.

Robinson is one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL, and he ranks third in receptions (54) and receiving yards (411) among backs. The New York Giants has been surprisingly competent against the pass, but I expect Penix to check the ball down to his star back to get some easy completions. Over his last eight games, Robinson has averaged 19.4 carries for 90.3 rushing yards and 4.1 receptions for 31.3 receiving yards. He eclipsed 125 rushing + receiving yards in five of those eight, including two of his last three. The Giants have been gashed by the run this season, surrendering the second-most rushing yards to opponents at 143.7. New York surrendered 170 rushing yards in its last game out, and Atlanta will look to exploit this favorable matchup, control the clock, and take the pressure off of Penix.

OC Zac Robinson should keep the game plan simple for Michael Penix Jr. in his NFL debut, featuring a run-heavy approach for Bijan Robinson. The star running back is fresh off his best outing of the season, carrying the ball 22 times for 125 yards against Las Vegas. The former first-round pick is set for arguably an even bigger day in Week 16 as he's set to face Giants defense surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, trailing only Carolina for the league-worst mark. At an O/U of 91.5, I'd consider laddering Robinson to 100+ and 125+ in rushing milestones. The Falcons should lead early and have the game script in their favor against a New York side that has lost nine in a row. 

The Giants could be left with Tim Boyle under center as their clown car of QBs continues to skid out of control. And speaking of clown QBs, it looks like the Falcons don’t trust Kirk Cousins to throw the ball anymore. He passed just 17 times against Vegas on Monday, completing 11 of those attempts for 112 yards. Any gains made by these offenses will be short passes and handoffs, which keep the clock ticking.