LIVE 03:51 4th Dec 22
MIN 27 -2.5 o43.0
SEA 24 2.5 u43.0
LIVE 08:35 4th Dec 22
NE 14 14.0 o47.5
BUF 24 -14.0 u47.5
LIVE 14:51 4th Dec 22
JAC 14 2.5 o41.5
LV 13 -2.5 u41.5
LIVE 12:23 4th Dec 22
SF 10 -2.0 o44.0
MIA 19 2.0 u44.0
TB -4.0 o48.0
DAL 4.0 u48.0
NO 14.0 o43.0
GB -14.0 u43.0
Final Dec 19
DEN 27
LAC 34
Final Dec 21
HOU 19 3.5 o42.5
KC 27 -3.5 u42.5
Final Dec 21
PIT 17 7.5 o44.0
BAL 34 -7.5 u44.0
Final Dec 22
TEN 30 4.0 o43.5
IND 38 -4.0 u43.5
Final Dec 22
PHI 33 -4.0 o47.0
WAS 36 4.0 u47.0
Final Dec 22
LA 19 -3.0 o47.0
NYJ 9 3.0 u47.0
Final Dec 22
CLE 6 10.0 o45.5
CIN 24 -10.0 u45.5
Final Dec 22
NYG 7 10.0 o43.0
ATL 34 -10.0 u43.0
Final OT Dec 22
ARI 30 -5.5 o47.0
CAR 36 5.5 u47.0
Final Dec 22
DET 34 -6.5 o47.5
CHI 17 6.5 u47.5
New Orleans 3rd NFC South5-9
Kansas City 1st AFC West14-1
ESPN

New Orleans @ Kansas City props

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Xavier Worthy Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

X. Worthy
wide receiver WR ? Kansas City
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Under
-120

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. The Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.7%) to WRs this year (59.7%). The Saints linebackers rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Xavier Worthy

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. The Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.7%) to WRs this year (59.7%). The Saints linebackers rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Travis Kelce Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

T. Kelce
tight end TE ? Kansas City
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.4
Best Odds
Under
+112

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. Travis Kelce's 3.6 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.2 rate. Travis Kelce's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year's 80.1% mark.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.4
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.4

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. Travis Kelce's 3.6 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.2 rate. Travis Kelce's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year's 80.1% mark.

Kareem Hunt Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

K. Hunt
running back RB ? Kansas City
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.1
Best Odds
Under
-152

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. Kareem Hunt is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in a measly 73.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 20th percentile. Since the start of last season, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a measly 75.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.1

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. Kareem Hunt is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in a measly 73.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 20th percentile. Since the start of last season, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a measly 75.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

Juwan Johnson Receptions Made Props ? New Orleans

J. Johnson
tight end TE ? New Orleans
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.2
Best Odds
Over
-230

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is expected by the projections to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 3.5 targets. Juwan Johnson's 77.4% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 64.1% mark.

Juwan Johnson

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.2
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.2

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is expected by the projections to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 3.5 targets. Juwan Johnson's 77.4% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 64.1% mark.

Alvin Kamara Receptions Made Props ? New Orleans

A. Kamara
running back RB ? New Orleans
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
-134

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to garner 6.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a remarkable 19.6% Target% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara rates among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.

Alvin Kamara

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.7
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.7

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to garner 6.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a remarkable 19.6% Target% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara rates among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.

Chris Olave Receptions Made Props ? New Orleans

C. Olave
wide receiver WR ? New Orleans
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
-146

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. In this contest, Chris Olave is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.3 targets. With a terrific 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, Chris Olave ranks among the top wide receivers in the game in the league.

Chris Olave

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.7
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.7

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. In this contest, Chris Olave is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.3 targets. With a terrific 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, Chris Olave ranks among the top wide receivers in the game in the league.

Mecole Hardman Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

M. Hardman
wide receiver WR ? Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Receptions Made
Projection
--
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Over
-150
Under
+115
Prop
0.5 Receptions Made
Season Avg.
--
Best Odds
Over
-150
Under
+115

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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