Carolina @ Chicago props

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 5.5 points. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.2 per game) this year. D.J. Moore's 56.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 76.9.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.2 plays per game. The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to accrue 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs. Cole Kmet profiles as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile. Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 83.1% to 92.1%.

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.1% pass rate. Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume. Diontae Johnson's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 61.3% to 53.7%. Since the start of last season, the strong Bears defense has surrendered a puny 63.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 8th-lowest rate in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Chicago's collection of CBs has been very good this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.2 plays per game. This week, D'Andre Swift is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.8 targets. With a sizeable 12.9% Target% (90th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift rates among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. D'Andre Swift has been one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a terrific 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The leading projections forecast Chuba Hubbard to earn 3.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs. With a stellar 3.2 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Chuba Hubbard places among the leading pass-game running backs in the league. The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (84.8%) to running backs since the start of last season (84.8%).

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. Tommy Tremble's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 76.9% to 84.1%. Since the start of last season, the porous Bears pass defense has allowed a colossal 76.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 10th-biggest rate in football.