Arizona @ San Francisco props

Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.8% pass rate. The model projects the Cardinals to run the 4th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Arizona Cardinals have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's LB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 7th-best in football.

The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script. In this contest, Trey McBride is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.5 targets. Trey McBride has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 20.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among tight ends. With an outstanding 4.7 adjusted catches per game (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Trey McBride places among the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.

With a 9.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a huge favorite in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week. The model projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 25.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: fewest in the NFL. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The 2nd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average). George Kittle has run a route on 86.7% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 98th percentile among TEs. The model projects George Kittle to garner 5.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs. With an exceptional 4.2 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) since the start of last season, George Kittle has been as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in the NFL. George Kittle's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 72.7% to 89.5%.

The 2nd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average). Jordan Mason has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (60.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (6.5%). Jordan Mason's play as a receiver has gotten better this season, notching 1.5 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 0.3 last season. Since the start of last season, the anemic Arizona Cardinals pass defense has surrendered a staggering 88.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Arizona's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in football.