Detroit @ Green Bay props

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume. This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has yielded a measly 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's group of safeties has been terrific this year, profiling as the best in the league.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume. Josh Jacobs's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 20.5. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's group of safeties has been terrific this year, profiling as the best in the league.

The projections expect the Lions to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is expected by the projection model to finish in the 95th percentile among WRs with 9.3 targets. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 27.4% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an exceptional 77.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places among the best possession receivers in the league among wideouts.

The model projects the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to see 133.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. Jayden Reed has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (76.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.4%). Jayden Reed's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.1% to 76.4%.

The projections expect the Lions to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. In this contest, Sam LaPorta is predicted by the projections to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.8 targets. The predictive model expects Sam LaPorta to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack in this game (17.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.2% in games he has played). Sam LaPorta's 96.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a remarkable progression in his receiving talent over last year's 71.7% rate. This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded a colossal 80.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 10th-worst rate in the league.

The projections expect the Lions to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to total 4.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs. With a high 12.3% Target% (89th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league. Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 2.8 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 86th percentile. Jahmyr Gibbs's 84.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a material improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 73.7% figure.