Houston @ Green Bay props

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3 points. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. Josh Jacobs's 11.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 20.5. Josh Jacobs's 1.8 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a significant regression in his receiving ability over last season's 2.8 mark. The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74%) vs. RBs this year (74.0%).

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3 points. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. Tucker Kraft's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 80.6% to 75.2%. This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 54.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the best rate in football.

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (36.3 per game) this year. Stefon Diggs checks in as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging an excellent 6.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a staggering 61.8 per game on average). The Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (36.3 per game) this year.

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a staggering 61.8 per game on average). The Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (36.3 per game) this year.

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 136.1 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week. Jayden Reed has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (76.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.4%). The projections expect Jayden Reed to notch 7.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wideouts. With an excellent 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jayden Reed ranks as one of the best wide receivers in the game in the league.