LIVE 12:53 4th Dec 22
MIN 20 -2.5 o43.0
SEA 17 2.5 u43.0
LIVE 01:52 3rd Dec 22
NE 14 14.0 o47.5
BUF 17 -14.0 u47.5
LIVE 07:25 3rd Dec 22
JAC 7 2.5 o41.5
LV 13 -2.5 u41.5
LIVE 05:53 3rd Dec 22
SF 10 -2.0 o44.0
MIA 16 2.0 u44.0
TB -4.0 o48.0
DAL 4.0 u48.0
NO 14.0 o43.0
GB -14.0 u43.0
Final Dec 19
DEN 27
LAC 34
Final Dec 21
HOU 19 3.5 o42.5
KC 27 -3.5 u42.5
Final Dec 21
PIT 17 7.5 o44.0
BAL 34 -7.5 u44.0
Final Dec 22
TEN 30 4.0 o43.5
IND 38 -4.0 u43.5
Final Dec 22
PHI 33 -4.0 o47.0
WAS 36 4.0 u47.0
Final Dec 22
LA 19 -3.0 o47.0
NYJ 9 3.0 u47.0
Final Dec 22
CLE 6 10.0 o45.5
CIN 24 -10.0 u45.5
Final Dec 22
NYG 7 10.0 o43.0
ATL 34 -10.0 u43.0
Final OT Dec 22
ARI 30 -5.5 o47.0
CAR 36 5.5 u47.0
Final Dec 22
DET 34 -6.5 o47.5
CHI 17 6.5 u47.5
Kansas City 1st AFC West14-1
San Francisco 4th NFC West6-8
FOX

Kansas City @ San Francisco props

Levi's Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Made Props ? San Francisco

B. Aiyuk
wide receiver WR ? San Francisco
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.3
Best Odds
Under
-102

The model projects the 49ers to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the 49ers to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. Brandon Aiyuk's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 67.8. Brandon Aiyuk's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.7 mark. Brandon Aiyuk's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 74.7% to 57.5%.

Brandon Aiyuk

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.3
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.3

The model projects the 49ers to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the 49ers to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. Brandon Aiyuk's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 67.8. Brandon Aiyuk's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.7 mark. Brandon Aiyuk's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 74.7% to 57.5%.

Kareem Hunt Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

K. Hunt
running back RB ? Kansas City
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.1
Best Odds
Under
-152

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have just 125.6 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week. Kareem Hunt profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 74.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.1

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have just 125.6 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week. Kareem Hunt profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 74.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 21st percentile. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

J. Smith-Schuster
wide receiver WR ? Kansas City
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.3
Best Odds
Over
-139

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Juju Smith-Schuster to total 6.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs. While Juju Smith-Schuster has accounted for 8.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Kansas City's offense in this week's contest at 18.5%. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year. Juju Smith-Schuster's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 64.6% to 77.7%.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.3
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.3

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Juju Smith-Schuster to total 6.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs. While Juju Smith-Schuster has accounted for 8.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Kansas City's offense in this week's contest at 18.5%. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year. Juju Smith-Schuster's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 64.6% to 77.7%.

George Kittle Receptions Made Props ? San Francisco

G. Kittle
tight end TE ? San Francisco
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.8
Best Odds
Over
+100

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast George Kittle to accumulate 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle's receiving talent has improved this year, notching 5.7 adjusted catches vs a mere 4.0 last year.

George Kittle

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.8
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.8

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast George Kittle to accumulate 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. George Kittle's receiving talent has improved this year, notching 5.7 adjusted catches vs a mere 4.0 last year.

Jordan Mason Receptions Made Props ? San Francisco

J. Mason
running back RB ? San Francisco
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Over
-102

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. Jordan Mason's 54.1% Route Participation% this year reflects a noteworthy gain in his air attack workload over last year's 6.5% rate. Jordan Mason's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, averaging 1.3 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.3 last season. Since the start of last season, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 86.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

Jordan Mason

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.7
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.7

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. Jordan Mason's 54.1% Route Participation% this year reflects a noteworthy gain in his air attack workload over last year's 6.5% rate. Jordan Mason's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, averaging 1.3 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.3 last season. Since the start of last season, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 86.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

Xavier Worthy Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

X. Worthy
wide receiver WR ? Kansas City
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
+116

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

Xavier Worthy

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.5
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.5

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

Deebo Samuel Receptions Made Props ? San Francisco

D. Samuel
wide receiver WR ? San Francisco
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.3
Best Odds
Over
-165

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to accumulate 7.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an exceptional 21.6% Target Share (78th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel stands as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.3
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.3

The 49ers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (35.8 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to accumulate 7.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an exceptional 21.6% Target Share (78th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel stands as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.

Travis Kelce Receptions Made Props ? Kansas City

T. Kelce
tight end TE ? Kansas City
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.1
Best Odds
Over
-144

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Travis Kelce has run a route on 87.4% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The model projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.1
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.1

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Travis Kelce has run a route on 87.4% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The model projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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